黄河中下游地区主要省份低碳经济发展水平的时空差异研究  

Temporal and spatial differences in the level of low carbon economic development among the provinces in the middle and lower reaches of the Yellow River Basin

作　　者：王喜[1,2,3] 秦耀辰[1,2,3] 鲁丰先[1,2,3] 张黛[1,2,3] 姜向亚[1,2,3] 

机构地区：[1]河南大学黄河文明与可持续发展研究中心,开封475004 [2]河南大学环境与规划学院,开封475004 [3]河南大学黄河中下游数字地理技术实验室,开封475004

出　　处：《地理科学进展》2013年第4期505-513,共9页Progress in Geography

基　　金：教育部人文社会科学重点研究基地重大项目(10JJDZONGHE015);国家自然科学基金项目(41171438);河南省教育厅人文社会科学研究项目(2012-JD-013)

摘　　要：低碳经济发展评价及其时空差异研究是低碳经济研究从理论阶段向应用阶段转移的重要步骤,建立低碳经济发展水平评价指标体系的实质就是确定低碳经济发展的具体内容及考核的标准体系,可为低碳经济发展和调控提供必要的理论支撑。本文参考DPSIR模型,选取碳排放强度、人均碳排放等25个指标,构建了基于PSIR模型的低碳经济发展评价指标体系,对黄河中下游地区的主要省份(陕西省、山西省、河南省、河北省、山东省)1991-2010年的低碳经济发展水平及其时空差异进行研究。研究结果表明,在时间维上,研究区内各省份总体上是朝着低碳经济的方向发展,但也存在一定的波动;在空间维上,各省份的低碳经济发展水平差异较大,山东省低碳经济发展水平最高,而山西省、河南省低碳经济发展水平相对较低;除压力子系统外,其他各子系统与低碳经济发展水平之间存在着极为显著(或高度)的正相关。从影响低碳经济发展的因素看,影响子系统、压力子系统变化的贡献率最大,而技术进步等因素的贡献率相对较小。Evaluation of the levels of low carbon economic development and the investigation of their spatial differences are an important step from basic （theoretical） to applied （practical） research on low carbon economy. The essence of establishing an evaluation index system is to specify the content of low carbon development in details and a criterion system for assessment in order to provide necessary theoretical support for low carbon economic development and its regulation, With reference to DPSIR （driving forces-pressure-state-impact-response） model, using carbon emission intensity, per capita carbon emission, etc. among 25 indices, an evaluation index system based on PSIR model was established to study the levels of low carbon development and their temporal and spatial differences for the major provinces in the middle and lower reaches of the Yellow River Basin from 1991 to 2010. The results indicate that, in the region under study, temporally all provinces are progressing toward low carbon economy with fluctuations; spatially the levels of the development in different provinces vary, with the highest level in Shandong and relatively lower levels in Shanxi and Henan. But the progress is faster in the provinces with lower levels of low carbon economy. With regard to the impacting factors, with the exception of pressure sub-system, all other sub-systems show highly positive correlation with low carbon economic development, with variations in the different areas of the region. In general, changes of the pressure sub-system have greatest impact on low carbon economic development, suggesting that carbon emission intensity is being continuously lowered, industrial structure continuously optimized, and the pressure on resources and the environment reduced. However, the contribution of technological progress to low carbon economic development is relatively small.

关 键 词：低碳经济评价 时空变化 PSIR模型 黄河中下游 

分 类 号：F127[经济管理—世界经济] X24[环境科学与工程—环境科学] F224