基于需求预测的短生命周期产品订货策略研究  

Ordering strategy of short life-cycle products based on the demand forecasting

作　　者：徐贤浩[1] 陈雯[1] 廖丽平[1] 李路军[1] 

机构地区：[1]华中科技大学管理学院,武汉430074

出　　处：《管理科学学报》2013年第4期22-32,共11页Journal of Management Sciences in China

基　　金：国家自然科学基金重点资助项目(71131004);国家教育部基金资助项目(09YJA630043);中央高校基本科研业务费专项资金资助项目(2011TS118)

摘　　要：本文针对短生命周期产品的特点,考虑与需求因子相关的库存短缺拖后和无形变质,根据缺货时间点、订货时间点与产品到达成熟期的时间点之间的关系,建立基于短生命周期产品需求预测的3种订货策略模型:乐观订货策略,悲观订货策略和中庸订货策略模型,对模型进行了分析求解,对最优解的存在性进行了证明.然后根据实际销售数据进行需求预测和算例分析,分析各因子对于总库存成本、订货量、短缺拖后量、销售损失量以及最优订货策略的影响.最后通过订货策略分析,分析各因子对于最优订货策略的影响,并将它们划分为3种订货策略影响因子,分析结果可以指导企业在不同因子水平情况下如何调整订货策略,以降低总库存成本.Based on the characteristics of short life-cycle products, the twice procurement model of short life- cycle products based on the demand forecasting is discussed. In the model, shortage is allowed to be partly backlogging, and the backlogging rate is related to the demand： the greater the demand, the more customers are willing to wait, and the bigger the backlogging rate. Value deterioration is occurred during the storage pe- riod, that means the value of products will reduce with time but the quantity and quality of products will re- main the same, and the value deterioration is also demand-related. Then, we discuss three procurement strate- gies based on the relationship between demand and inventory states： Optimistic Ordering Strategy, Pessimistic Ordering Strategy, and Moderate Ordering Strategy. Finally, a numerical example is provided to illustrate the solution procedure. We research the impacts of the parameters on the order policies of an enterprise, and ana- lyze the ranges of parameters of each ordering strategy.

关 键 词：BASS需求函数 部分短缺量拖后 短生命周期产品 无形变质 

分 类 号：F275[经济管理—企业管理]