东北区夏季月降水数值产品释用预报方法  

APPLICATION OF THE NUMERICAL PRODUCTS OF T63L16 MODEL FOR PREDICTING MONTHLY PRECIPITATION IN SUMMER OVER NORTHEAST CHINA

作　　者：张立祥[1] 陈力强[1] 刘文明[1] 李辑[1] 张凯[1] 

机构地区：[1]沈阳中心气象台,沈阳110015

出　　处：《应用气象学报》2000年第3期348-354,共7页Journal of Applied Meteorological Science

摘　　要：采用卡尔曼滤波法对国家气候中心的 T63动力延伸预报场进行误差订正 ,将订正后的预报场用于基于天气系统特征定性判断与相似离度指数定量相似相结合的降水预报模型 ,制作东北区 51个站点的定量的月降水预报 ,并对 1 996～1 998年夏季月降水进行了预报试验 ,试验效果较好 .WT5BZ]The Kalman filter method is used to correct the errors of the predicted fields of the T63L16 model of the National Climate Center. The corrected fields are applied to a precipitation forecasting model which combines the qualitative analysis, based on characteristics of weather systems, with the quantitative analog, based on the analog discrete degree indexes, and the precipitation of 51 stations in Northeast China in the summer of 1996-1998 is made. The results show that its prediction performance is good.[WT5BZ] [WT5HZ]

关 键 词：动力释用 误差订正 月降水预报 中国 东北区 

分 类 号：P45[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]