STOCHASTIC DISCRETE-TIME AGE-OF-INFECTION EPIDEMIC MODELS  

作　　者：GUY KATRIEL 

机构地区：[1]Department of Mathematics, ORT Braude College Karmiel, Israel

出　　处：《International Journal of Biomathematics》2013年第1期85-104,共20页生物数学学报（英文版）

摘　　要：We present an epidemic model which can incorporate essential biological detail as well as the intrinsic demographic stochastieity of the epidemic process, yet is very simple, enabling rapid generation of a large number of simulations, A deterministic version of the model is also derived, in the limit of infinitely large populations, and a final-size formula for the deterministic model is proved. A key advantage of the model proposed is that it is possible to write down an explicit likelihood functions for it, which enables a systematic procedure for fitting parameters to real incidence data, using maximum likelihood.

关 键 词：Stochastic discrete-time epidemic model age-of-infection parameter estima- tion. 

分 类 号：O175.13[理学—数学] TP273.2[理学—基础数学]