重大灾害条件下应急交通疏散时间预测模型  

Forecast model of emergency traffic evacuation time under major disaster

作　　者：于德新[1,2] 仝倩[2] 杨兆升[1,2] 高鹏 

机构地区：[1]吉林大学汽车仿真与控制国家重点实验室,长春130022 [2]吉林大学交通学院,长春130022 [3]青岛市城市规划设计研究院,青岛266071

出　　处：《吉林大学学报（工学版）》2013年第3期654-658,共5页Journal of Jilin University:Engineering and Technology Edition

基　　金：'863'国家高技术研究发展计划项目(2009AA11Z218)

摘　　要：针对重大灾害条件下应急疏散和救援工作难以获取真实数据的现状,以BPR(Bureau of public road)路阻函数为基础,分别建立了路段行程时间模型和路径行程时间模型,并给出了重大灾害条件下车辆应急疏散时间预测模型。以德州市路网为背景,采用TransModeler仿真软件搭建路网,模拟重大灾害事件,获取应急疏散时间数据,并对模型进行验证。试验结果表明:与现有仿真软件相比,该算法具有较高的保真度和精确度,为重大灾害条件下的应急疏散和救援工作提供了数据支持。Currently it is hard to get real data for emergency evacuation and rescue work under major disaster. To overcome this situation, a calculation model of the link travel time and route travel time was proposed based on the BPR （Bureau of Public Roads） function. Then a prediction model of emergency evacuation time under major disaster was built. Under the background of road network in De Zhou city of China, the software TransModeler is adopted to build interregional road network and simulate major disaster. The data of emergency evacuation time obtained with TransModeler is used to check the proposed model. Results show that the proposed model has higher precision and fidelity, which can offer data support to emergency evacuation and rescue work when major disaster occurs.

关 键 词：交通运输系统工程 重大灾害 应急交通疏散 疏散时间 预测模型 

分 类 号：U491[交通运输工程—交通运输规划与管理]