空间效应、投机与房价波动的理论及实证  

Spatial Effects,Speculation and Housing Price Fluctuations:Theory and Evidence

作　　者：谭政勋[1] 

机构地区：[1]暨南大学金融系与金融研究所,广东广州510632

出　　处：《当代财经》2013年第5期15-26,共12页Contemporary Finance and Economics

基　　金：国家社会科学基金项目"我国房价稳定与银行稳定的货币政策研究"(12BJY161);教育部人文社会科学基金项目(09YJA790087);广东省优秀博士学位论文项目(sybzzxm201032)

摘　　要：根据珠江三角洲城市房价波动既有趋同性、又有差异性的经验事实,构建了区域房价理论模型,不仅考虑了预期和投机对房价的影响,还引进了房价波动的空间效应、货币政策影响房价的区域异质性。空间异质系数模型的实证表明,人均可支配收入、投机和信用扩张所形成的房价预期拉动了所有城市房价的上涨,这是房价波动趋同的重要原因;但不同城市房价对这些因素的反应敏感度不一样,其中深圳最为敏感,这是不同城市房价波动差异较大、深圳房价增长最快、波动最剧烈的内在原因。比较而言,投机和信用扩张所形成的房价预期对房价的影响远大于利率,利率调控房价的作用力非常小;投机性因素在短期内推动房价波动的力度比房价预期大得多,而长期刚好相反。According to the fact that there exist convergence and differences in the housing price fluctuations in the Pearl River Delta cities, this paper constructs a theoretical model of regional hous- ing prices, which not only considers the effects of expectations and speculations on housing prices but also introduces the spatial effect of housing price fluctuations and the regional heterogeneous of hous- ing prices affected by the monetary policy. The empirical result from the spatial heterogeneous coeffi- cient model shows that the per capita disposable income, speculation and pricing expectations resulted from credit expansion can play a joint role in the rising of housing prices in all cities, which is the reason for the convergence of price fluctuations. But housing prices in different cities have different reactive sensitivity towards the above factors, among which the housing prices in Shenzhen is the most sensitive. This is the internal cause why different cities have larger differences in housing price fluctuations and the housing prices in Shenzhen rise quickest and fluctuate most acutely. Comparative- ly speaking, housing price expectations formed by speculation and credit expansion have greater influ- ence on housing prices than interest rates; interest rates can only play a limited role in controlling housing prices. In the short term speculative factors can play a more important role in quickening price fluctuations than the housing price expectations, but in the long run it is just the opposite.

关 键 词：空间效应 房价预期 投机 房价波动 异质系数模型 

分 类 号：F293.3[经济管理—国民经济]