基于可变模糊集理论的海岛可持续发展评价模型——以辽宁省长海县为例  

The Evaluation Model of Island Sustainable Development Based on Multi-Objective Variable Fuzzy Set Theory—Taking Changhai County in Liaoning Province as an Example

作　　者：柯丽娜 王权明[2] 李永化 曹永强 

机构地区：[1]辽宁省自然地理与空间信息科学重点实验室,辽宁大连116029 [2]国家海洋环境监测中心,辽宁大连116023

出　　处：《自然资源学报》2013年第5期832-843,共12页Journal of Natural Resources

基　　金：国家973计划(2010CB951102);国家908专项"我国近海海洋综合调查与评价"子课题"全国海岛开发与保护规划及政策研究"(908-02-09-03)

摘　　要：海岛生态环境脆弱,保护海岛及其周边海域生态系统,合理开发利用海岛自然资源,促进海岛经济社会可持续发展是我国海岛保护法的根本宗旨。论文试图借鉴陆域可持续发展指标体系的思路,结合海岛的自然环境与社会经济特殊性,从生存支持、生态环境、经济发展、社会与智力支持四个层面选取指标,并将熵权法和非结构性决策模糊集理论模型相结合确定海岛可持续发展评价指标的权重,构建海岛可持续发展的指标体系;进一步引入可变模糊评价方法,建立基于可变模糊集理论的海岛可持续发展综合评价模型,对辽宁省长海县2001—2011年可持续发展的状况进行评价验证,识别影响长海县可持续发展能力的关键因素、存在的问题与限制性因子,为提高海岛经济社会可持续发展水平提供科学的分析数据。With the vulnerable ecological environment of sea islands, protecting the ecosystem of islands as well as their surrounding waters, reasonably exploiting and utilizing the natural resource of sea islands, and promoting the sustainable development of island economy and society have become basic purpose of Legislation of Sea Island Protection of PRC. This essay attempts to refer to the idea of land area sustainable development index system, select indexes in terms of four aspects including survival support, ecological environment, economic development, social and intellectual support, integrating the natural environment of islands and the particularity of society and economy, determine the weight of evaluation index of island sustainable development with the integration of entropy weight method and the nonstructural decision fuzzy set theory model, and build the index system of island sustainable development; the essay also further imports variable fuzzy evaluation method of the unity of the opposites and quality interaction law, set up the comprehensive evaluation model of island sustainable development based on the theory of variable fuzzy set, evaluate and verify the condition of sustainable development in Changhai County from 2001 to 2011, and identify key factors, existing problems and restrictive factors affecting the capability of sustainable development. This provides scientific analyst data for improving the level of sustainable development of economy and society.

关 键 词：可变模糊集 海岛 可持续发展评价 长海县 

分 类 号：X22[环境科学与工程—环境科学]