基于CDM机制的国际碳排放权贸易价格波动性研究  

Research on Trading Price Volatility of the International Carbon Emission Rights:Based on the Mechanism of CDM

作　　者：黄晓凤[1] 程玉仙[1] 唐嘉徽[2] 

机构地区：[1]广东商学院国民经济研究中心,广东广州510320 [2]中南林业科技大学经济学院,湖南长沙410004

出　　处：《财经理论与实践》2013年第3期93-97,共5页The Theory and Practice of Finance and Economics

基　　金：国家自然科学基金(71173052);教育部人文社会科学研究一般项目(12YJAZH223);广东省软科学计划项目(2011B070300032);广东商学院国民经济研究中心招标课题(2012XMA17)

摘　　要：运用规范分析和基于GARCH模型族的实证分析发现:清洁发展机制(CDM)下国际碳排放权核证减排单位(CERs)市场的价格波动是政治博弈、国际经济形势等多重因素共同冲击的结果。其价格波动呈现时变性、聚集性和持续性特征,市场"杠杆效应"明显。我国作为全球CDM项目的最大供给方,为了掌握定价权,必须寻求CERs市场价格波动规律、积极参与国际气候环境条款的谈判、选择恰当贸易时机和建立CDM项目风险管理体系。Using the normative analysis and the empirical analysis based on GARCH models to study, it is proved that trading price volatility of the international carbon emission rights results from common impaction which political game and international economic situation. The volatility of CERs price would be last for long time, it would not attenuate while the time changes. There is an obvious ＂leverage effect＂ in the CERs market. In order to master pricing, China must participate in international negotiations of climate environment terms actively as the biggest CDM supplier in the world, seek price volatility rules in CERs market ,choose appropriate trade opportunity and establish CDM risk management system.

关 键 词：碳排放权 贸易价格 波动规律 GARCH模型 

分 类 号：F740.3[经济管理—国际贸易]