河北省新农保地方政府财政支持能力预测  

A Predictive Study on Financial Support Capacity of Local Government to the New System of Rural Pension Insurance in HeBei Province

作　　者：王明慧[1] 陆广春[1] 李玉英[1] 吴爽[1] 

机构地区：[1]河北联合大学管理学院,河北唐山063000

出　　处：《河北联合大学学报（社会科学版）》2013年第2期48-52,共5页Journal of Hebei Polytechnic University:Social Science Edition

基　　金：2012年度河北省社会科学发展研究课题:河北省新型农村养老保险长效供给机制研究(编号:201203068);2011年度唐山市科技局资助项目:唐山市农民参加新农保的现状和影响因素研究(编号12140208A-15)

摘　　要：河北省于2009年建立了新农保制度,对于农村居民的养老保障有着决定性的意义,但实践中农民缴费偏低,新农保的有效运行在很大程度上依赖地方财政,特别是县级财政。采用ARIMA模型对河北省及其下辖的遵化市(县级)两级政府2012—2020年的财政收入进行了预测,并根据预测的人口规模测算了新农保的财政支持能力,认为相对于中央财政和省财政,县财政在新农保运行过程中承担的财政压力过大,并据此提出了相关建议。The new system of rural pension insurance which has been built in HeBei province in 2009, has a decis- ive significance for strengthening peasants endowment. However, in prctice, the payment for the system from peasents is low, and so the effective working of the system relies on government fiscal support to a great extent, especially on cunty-level finance. The model of ARIMA is adopted to predict the finacial revenue of HeBei province and ZunHua city that is a cunty under the jurisdiction of the former,from the year of 2012 to 2020. Then the financial support ca- pacity of the province and county governments to the new system of rural pension insurance is also estimated accord- ing to the forcasted Population size. In view of the above analysis, the pressure of cunty-level finance was too high comparing with central and provincial governments. Finally, some relevant advice is put forward.

关 键 词：新农保 地方政府 财政支持 ARIMA模型 

分 类 号：F804.67[经济管理]