串联可修系统多阶段任务可靠性近似评估  

An approximate method to assess the reliability of the multi-phased mission on the series repairable system

作　　者：齐建军[1] 谭林[2] 郭波[1] 雷洪涛[2] 

机构地区：[1]国防科学技术大学信息系统与管理学院,长沙410073 [2]国防科学技术大学人文与社会科学学院,长沙410073

出　　处：《深圳大学学报（理工版）》2013年第3期268-274,共7页Journal of Shenzhen University(Science and Engineering)

基　　金：国家自然科学基金资助项目(71201166)~~

摘　　要：针对串联可修系统多阶段任务可靠性难以用传统解析方法评估,分析串联可修系统多阶段任务可靠性特点,将其转换为串联系统单阶段任务可靠性评估问题,用近似计算的方法评估其任务可靠性,并精确估计近似计算结果的误差量.通过示例评估和仿真比较,证明本研究方法简捷易行,具有较高精度.The reliability of the multi-phase mission on the series repairable system is the probability of the system in which all workloads of each single-phase can be finished in the interval time. As the system of multi-phase mis-sion is a typically complicated system, it is very hard to assess the reliability in a typically analytical way. In this paper, the character of the multi-phase mission on the repairable system is analyzed. Then, it is transformed into the problem of assessing the reliability of the single-phase mission on the series system. After that, the mission re-liability is evaluated by using an approximate method and the error scope is estimated. At the end, an evaluating case is given, wherein the simulation method is also used, and the experimental result shows that method pro-posed in this paper is of high precision.

关 键 词：可靠性评估 多阶段任务 单阶段任务 可修系统 精确评估 串联系统 军事决策 

分 类 号：TG156[金属学及工艺—热处理]