通货膨胀的稳定性与最优通货膨胀  

Inflationary stability and the optimal inflation

作　　者：黄炎龙[1] 陈伟忠[1] 

机构地区：[1]同济大学经济与管理学院,上海200092

出　　处：《管理科学学报》2013年第5期13-28,共16页Journal of Management Sciences in China

基　　金：国家自然科学基金资助项目(71173153)

摘　　要：建立了财政和货币政策协作的最优政策模型,研究了通货膨胀的稳定性与最优通胀.分析结果表明,通胀的稳定性需要政策制定者利用政策规则促进市场结构向有利于维持通胀稳定的市场竞争结构、货币需求偏好以及市场预期方向运动,经济增长中Ramsey均衡的最优通胀是零边界,零边界的最优通胀水平依赖于市场微观机制和政策机制.在财政和货币政策协作机制的Ramsey均衡下,政府能够使用政策让通货膨胀向最优路径运动,政府也能够影响市场结构促使最优通胀的实现.经分析证实,没有证据表明最优的通胀率为2%.This paper establishes an optimal policy model with the fiscal and monetary policy coordination and analyzes the inflationary stability and optimal rate of inflation. The results show that, to gain the stability of in- flation, policy makers need to use policy rules to promote the change of the market structures, preferences, money demand and market expectation conducive to maintaining a stable inflation. The optimal rate of inflation under the Ramsey equilibrium is zero boundary, which depends on the microscopic mechanism of the market and policy mechanisms. Under the Ramsey equilibrium with fiscal and monetary policy coordination, the gov- ernment can use the policy of optimal inflation to induce real inflation to the optimal path and the government can influence the market structure to promote the realization of optimal inflation. Our analysis found no evi- dence to show that the optimal inflation rate is 2 %.

关 键 词：通货膨胀 宏观政策 最优通胀率 Ramsey均衡 

分 类 号：F015[经济管理—政治经济学]