基于突变理论的过饱和旅游流应急疏散效率评价方法  

Evaluation Method of Emergency Evacuation Efficiency for Hype-congestion Tourism Flow Based on Catastrophe Theory

作　　者：戢晓峰[1] 梁斐雯[1] 陈方[2] 

机构地区：[1]昆明理工大学交通工程学院,中国云南昆明650500 [2]昆明理工大学社会科学学院,中国云南昆明650500

出　　处：《经济地理》2013年第5期168-173,共6页Economic Geography

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目(61263025);教育部人文社会科学研究西部边疆项目(11XJC840001);云南省省院省校教育合作人文社会科学项目(SYSX201203)

摘　　要：过饱和旅游流导致了旅游交通的延误增加和服务水平的显著恶化,同时降低旅游流的疏散效率并带来巨大的安全隐患。在解析过饱和旅游流形成机理的基础上,确定应急疏散群体行为及交通行为影响度作为评价指标,基于尖点突变理论构建过饱和旅游流应急疏散效率的评估模型。结果表明:不同旅游者的疏散交通行为特性及疏散群体行为特性,将导致过饱和旅游流的应急疏散效率呈现明显差异,利用尖点突变模型能够有效评估过饱和旅游流应急疏散效率,同时揭示了通过合理发布突发事件信息和增加疏散交通设施供给,能够有效提高过饱和旅游流的应急疏散效率。Hype-congestion tourism flow leads to increased tourist travel delays and decreased service level, and reduces the tourist flow evacuation efficiency and gives the tourists a huge security risk at the same time. Based on explaining the mechanism of hype-congestion tourism flow, the emergency evacuation behavior for the three kinds of tourists（Travel packages, Self-drive and public transport tourist） among the hype-congestion and freedom tourism flow are analyzed, then used the cusp catastrophe theory to descript the tendency of hype-congestion tourism flow under different time dimensions. By selecting the effect degree of the group emergency responses behavior and transportation behavior as evaluation indicators, the evaluation model of emergency evacuation efficiency for the hype-congestiun tourism flow is established under the cusp catastrophe theory. Results of the example indicate that the different group emergency responses behavior and transportation behavior can affect the hype-congestion tourism flow; the application of cusp catastrophe model can effectively assess the advantages and disadvantages of emergency evacuation efficiency. The emergency evacuation efficiency of hype-congestion tourism flow can be increase by reasonable publishing emergency information and adding evacuation transportation facilities.

关 键 词：旅游交通 旅游流 突变理论 应急疏散 尖点突变 

分 类 号：F59[经济管理—旅游管理]