基于BP神经网络的太白山生态旅游量预测研究  

Prediction of the Amount of Ecotourism Based on BP Neural Network on Taibai Mountains

作　　者：李崇实[1] 樊金拴[1] 

机构地区：[1]西北农林科技大学,陕西杨凌712100

出　　处：《防护林科技》2013年第6期13-15,共3页Protection Forest Science and Technology

摘　　要：生态旅游需求预测受到许多不可预知因素的干扰,而且不稳定因素也很多,传统方法难以得到有效的预测结果。文章把BP神经网络应用在旅游需求预测中,通过介绍BP神经网络的原理和计算步骤,结合实例确定神经网络的结构,从而建立BP神经网络,最后预测了太白山自然保护区2011—2020年旅游人数,将利用该模型得到预测数据与实际数据做对比,表明该模型预测效果良好,并能保证网络良好的泛化能力。Ecotourism demand forecast was disturbed by many unpredictable factors,and there are many unstable fac-tors; using traditional method is difficult to obtain valid predictions. In the process of applications for BP neural net-work in travel demand forecasting, through the introduction of the principle of BP neural network and calculation steps, with examples to determine the structure of the neural network,the BP neural network was established; tour-ist arrivals of Taibai Mountain Nature Reserve from 2011 to 2020 were finally predicted; the predicted data by using this model were compared with the actual data; it shows that the model predicts well,and ensures optimal generali-zation ability for network.

关 键 词：太白山 旅游需求 神经网络 预测 BP 

分 类 号：F592[经济管理—旅游管理] F224[经济管理—产业经济]