时间序列模型在查哈阳农场降雨量预测中应用  

Application of Time-series Model in Chahayang Farm Rainfall Prediction

作　　者：刘杨[1,2] 徐淑琴[1] 董丽丽[1] 王云鹤[1] 

机构地区：[1]东北农业大学水利与建筑学院,哈尔滨150030 [2]中国农业科学院农田灌溉研究所,河南新乡453003

出　　处：《黑龙江水利科技》2012年第2期5-7,共3页Heilongjiang Hydraulic Science and Technology

基　　金：东北农业大学博士基金项目(E090202);黑龙江省教育厅科学技术研究项目(NO.11551044)

摘　　要：将时间序列模型分解为趋势项、周期项和随机项,并分别对各项进行提取建立预测模型。将该模型应用于查哈阳农场1956—2008年作物生育期月降雨量的拟合预测,结果表明该模型能够揭示该地区作物生育期的月降雨量变化规律,为合理制定灌溉制度,节约用水,对于预测未来年份降雨的丰枯状况、水资源量的大小以及洪涝等方面都有重要的意义。The time series model is decomposed into the trend item,cycle item and random item,which is respectively extracted to establish the various forecasting models.The model is applied to conduct fitting forecast for monthly rainfall of the Chahayang Farm during the crop growth period from 1956 to 2008,and the results show that the model can reveal the changing law of monthly rainfall during the crop growth period in the area,and is very important for drawing up a reasonable irrigation system,saving water,predicting the rainfall,water resources the quantity as well as flood magnitude etc.,in the future years.

关 键 词：时间序列模型 趋势变化项 周期变化项 随机干扰项 降雨量 随机模拟 查哈阳 

分 类 号：TV125[水利工程—水文学及水资源]