房价变动对不同收入阶层消费的挤出效应——基于上海市的经验论证  

The Extrusion Effect of Housing Price Changes on Consumption of Different Income Groups: Based on the Experience Argumentation of Shanghai

作　　者：姚玲珍[1] 丁彦皓[2] 

机构地区：[1]上海财经大学教务处,上海200433 [2]上海财经大学公共经济与管理学院,上海200433

出　　处：《现代财经（天津财经大学学报）》2013年第5期3-15,27,共14页Modern Finance and Economics：Journal of Tianjin University of Finance and Economics

基　　金：上海财经大学创新基金项目(CXJJ-2012-321)

摘　　要：扩大内需是未来推动我国经济发展的突破口,但是,内需不足始终是制约我国经济可持续、稳定发展的最大阻碍。通过VECM模型论证上海市不同时期、拥有不同住房所有权的家庭消费对房价变动的反应结果显示:房价变动对高收入与低收入阶层的消费始终没有影响;对于平均消费、中高、中等与中低收入阶层,在1985-2000年期间,房价变动仅对中高收入阶层消费具有微弱的财富效应,对其他收入阶层的消费没有任何影响;在2000-2012年与1985-2012年期间,房价变动对中等收入阶层的消费表现为微弱的财富效应,对平均消费、中高与中低收入阶层的消费均表现为挤出效应。为此,本文提出通过抑制房价的非理性飙升态势来改变市场对房价走势的乐观预期,维持住房市场的健康稳定发展以构建促进消费增长的长效动力机制以及对中低收入阶层住房需求给予政策优惠等措施来扭转上海市房地产市场的挤出效应,以刺激消费,扩大内需。Expanding domestic demand is a breakthrough in driving China＇s economic growth,however,insufficient domestic demand has always been the biggest impediment to the sustainable and stable development of China＇s economy.The paper demonstrates responses of household consumption with different housing ownership in different periods of Shanghai by VECM model.The results are drawn as follows.There is no effect of the housing price changes on consumer spending of high-income and low-income groups.It has smaller wealth effect for the middle high-income in the 1985-2000,others have no effect;while in 2000-2012 and 1985-2012,it has smaller wealth effect for the middle-income,others have extrusion effect.Thence,it proposes changing the optimistic expectation by inhibition of irrational soar state,maintaining the healthy and stable development of the housing market,building long-term dynamic mechanism to promote the growth of consumption and giving preferential policies to middle-and low-income class to reverse extrusion effect of the real market in Shanghai,to stimulate consumption and expand domestic demand.

关 键 词：房价变动 居民消费 挤出效应 财富效应 

分 类 号：F293.35[经济管理—国民经济]