北京地区1970—2004年猩红热发病与六气及气象因子的相关性研究  

Correlation between attack of scarlet fever and six qi or meteorological factors in Beijing from 1970 to 2004

作　　者：汤巧玲[1] 马师雷[1] 刘宏伟[1] 高思华[1] 贺娟[1] 

机构地区：[1]北京中医药大学基础医学院,北京100029

出　　处：《北京中医药大学学报》2013年第5期333-336,344,共5页Journal of Beijing University of Traditional Chinese Medicine

基　　金：国家自然科学基金资助项目(No.81072896)

摘　　要：目的探讨北京地区猩红热发病与六气及气象因子的相关性。方法收集北京地区1970—2004年共35年的猩红热发病人数及相对应气象资料,包括日平均气温、日平均降雨量、日平均相对湿度、日平均水汽压、日平均风速,按六气分段并进行描述性分析和相关分析,筛选相关性高的气象因子,建立多元逐步回归方程,并对方程进行检验。结果猩红热的发病集中于冬春之季(初之气、二之气和终之气),与气温(初之气、二之气、三之气、四之气、五之气和终之气)、风速(初之气、二之气、五之气、终之气)、相对湿度(初之气、三之气、四之气)共13个气象因子的相关性具有统计学意义,初之气的气温和五之气的风速进入回归方程。猩红热的发病与前1年初之气的气温呈负相关,与前1年五之气的风速呈正相关。回归方程:Y=-914.932-351.455X1+1 351.195X2(X1为前1年初之气的平均气温,X2为前1年五之气的平均风速)对猩红热流行的预测具有较好的效果。结论猩红热的发病与六气和气象密切相关,利用前1年不同时段的气象变化规律可以预测后1年猩红热的发病情况。Objective To discuss the correlation between attack of scarlet fever and six qi or meteorological factors in Beijing. Methods The numbers of patients with scarlet fever and corresponding daily mean meteorological data, including temperature, precipitation, relative humidity, vapor pressure and wind speed, were collected in Beijing area from 1970 to 2004 （totally 35 years ）. The data was staged according to six qi and give descriptive analysis and correlation analysis for screening the meteorological factors with higher correlation, establishing multiple stepwise regression equation and testing the equation. Results The attack of scarlet fever centered in winter and spring （ the first qi, second qi and last qi ）, and the correlation between it and 13 meteorological factors had statistical significance, including temperature （the first qi, second qi, third qi, fourth qi, fifth qi and last qi）, wind speed （the first qi, second qi, fifth qi and last qi） and relative humidity （the first qi, third qi and fourth qi）. The temperature of the first qi and wind speed of the fifth qi were fitted in the regression equation. The attack of scarlet fever was negatively correlated to the temperature of the first qi of the previous year and positively correlated to the wind speed of the fifth qi of the previous year. The regression equation was Y= -914. 932-351. 455X1 ＋ 1351. 195X2 （X1 was the mean temperature of the first qi of the previous year and X2 was the mean wind speed of the fifth qi of the previous year）, which was meaningful in predicting the prevalence of scarlet fever. Conclusion The attack of scarlet fever is closely related to six qi and weather, and climate changes at different periods of the previous year can predict the attack of scarlet fever next year.

关 键 词：猩红热 六气 气象 相关性研究 

分 类 号：R226[医药卫生—中医基础理论]