危险化学品泄漏事故的混沌动力学特性分析  

The Chaotic Dynamics Analysis of the Hazardous Chemical Leakage Accidents

作　　者：刘伟[1] 

机构地区：[1]北京化工大学经济管理学院

出　　处：《化工管理》2013年第6期153-154,共2页Chemical Engineering Management

摘　　要：为探讨如何有效地预防和控制危险化学品泄漏事故,运用混沌理论方法对焦作市某化工厂泄漏事故统计数据进行了时间序列分析和R/S分析,指出危险化学品泄漏事故具有明显的混沌特性。分析和讨论了危险化学品泄漏事故的混沌特性,并对后续短期内可能发生的事故进行了预测。To study how to prevent and control hazardous chemical leakage accidents successfully and effectively, by using chaos theory and methods, the data of hazardous chemical leakage accidents of a chemical plant in Jiaozuo were analyzed. The results of time series analysis and R/S analysis in the data indicated that hazardous chemical leakage accidents have chaotic characteristics. Analyzed and discussed such chaotic characteristics of hazardous chemical leakage accidents. And, possible subsequent accidents in a short-term were forecasted.

关 键 词：危险化学品泄漏事故 混沌特性分析 时间序列分析 R S分析 

分 类 号：X937[环境科学与工程—安全科学]