基于模糊聚类和模糊推理的电网连锁故障预警方法  

A Forewarning Method of Cascading Failure in Power Grid Based on Fuzzy Clustering and Fuzzy Inference

作　　者：吴旭 张建华 赵天阳 宋晓磊[2] 

机构地区：[1]新能源电力系统国家重点实验室(华北电力大学),北京市昌平区102206 [2]河南省电力公司鹤壁电业局,河南省鹤壁市458030

出　　处：《电网技术》2013年第6期1659-1665,共7页Power System Technology

基　　金：国家863高技术基金项目(2012AA050201)~~

摘　　要：在连锁故障研究过程中,对其可能给电网带来的风险进行预警可以引导运行人员实现科学决策,从而避免大面积停电的发生。为实现连锁故障的预警分级,首先应用模糊C均值聚类及其修正方法对连锁故障概率进行分级,然后将失负荷、低电压和过负荷指标作为输入变量,构建反映电网静态安全水平的故障严重度模糊规则和隶属函数集,应用模糊推理方法对综合严重度等级进行划分,最后将概率和严重度综合,根据最大隶属度原则确定连锁故障风险预警的等级。以IEEE-RTS79系统为算例评估了不同的初始扰动下电网发生连锁故障后的风险水平,并分析了电网运行状态的差异对连锁故障预警等级的影响,验证了算法的合理性和有效性。To avoid blackout of power grid, during the research on cascading failure the forewarning of risk brought by it can guide the grid operation personnel to make scientific decision. Firstly, to implement the grading of forewarning of cascading failure risks the fuzzy C-means clustering and its correction are utilized to grade the probability of cascading failures; secondly, taking the indices of lost load, low voltage and overload as input variables, the fuzzy rules and membership function sets of failure severity, which can reflect static security level of power grid, are constructed and applying fuzzy inference the synthetical severity is graded; finally, synthesizing the probability of cascading failures with the severity of failure and according to the principle of the maximum membership, the forewarning levels of cascading failure risk is determined. Taking IEEE-RTS 79 system for example, the risk levels of power grid after the occurrence of cascading failures under different initial disturbances are evaluated, and the impacts of differences of power grid operating conditions on forewarning levels of cascading failures are analyzed, thus the rationality and effectiveness of the proposed algorithm are verified.

关 键 词：连锁故障 风险预警 模糊聚类 模糊推理 电力系统 

分 类 号：TM72[电气工程—电力系统及自动化]