上海市松江区大肠癌死亡趋势APC模型分析  

An Analysis on Temporal Trends of Colorectal Cancer Mortality in Songjiang District:An Application of APC Model

作　　者：朱美英[1] 张文翠[1] 黄丽妹[1] 陆慧萍[1] 陈岚[1] 

机构地区：[1]上海市松江区疾病预防控制中心,上海201620

出　　处：《中国肿瘤》2013年第5期350-354,共5页China Cancer

基　　金：上海市松江区医学领先项目(2011LX12)

摘　　要：[目的]预测上海市松江区大肠癌死亡趋势,为大肠癌的预防控制提供依据。[方法]死亡数据来自上海市松江区疾病预防控制中心死亡登记系统。采用年龄—时期—队列模型(APC模型)的分析方法,根据模型拟合结果进行预测。[结果]模型拟合结果以同时加入年龄、时期、队列效应的模型为最佳。分性别大肠癌死亡率的年龄、时期和队列效应均表现出序列趋势。应用模型拟合预测2016～2020年上海市松江区分性别的30～89岁年龄组大肠癌死亡率,各年龄组死亡率相对于2006～2010年(除30～34岁年龄组外)均有所下降。[结论]开展大肠癌早发现为先导的社区综合防治工作应成为大肠癌预防控制的优先策略。[Purpose] To investigate colorectal cancer mortality trend in Songjiang through the study on the features of colorectal cancer mortality including age,period and cohort. [Methods] Residents death data were collected from Songjiang District death registry system. Death records of colorectal cancer were selected to construct model according to the method of age-period-cohort（APC） model. [Results] The gender-specific model of age-period-cohort was best fitted. In gender-specific models,effects of age,period and cohort on colorectal cancer mortality presented all trend sequence. Using the best-fit model,gender-and age-specific mortality rates for 30～89 age group in 2016～2020 were predicted. Compared with those in 2006～2010,gender-and age-specific mortality rates in 2016～2020 would descend in Songjiang except for 30～34 age group. [Conclusion] It suggests community comprehensive prevention and control work based on colorectal cancer early detection should be the priority strategy for colorectal cancer control.

关 键 词：大肠癌 年龄—时期—队列模型 死亡率 

分 类 号：R735.34[医药卫生—肿瘤]