石油模型研究综述  

Review on Oil Models

作　　者：陈荣江[1] 张芳[1,2] 罗批[1] 丁光照[1] 

机构地区：[1]国防大学,北京100091 [2]二炮工程大学士官学院,山东青州262500

出　　处：《计算机仿真》2013年第6期4-10,共7页Computer Simulation

基　　金：Cyber攻击对国家关键基础设施级联失效影响建模仿真研究(61174035);Cyberspace网络化效应建模方法研究(61273189)

摘　　要：针对石油能源开发综合研究问题,从时间序列、灰色理论、神经网络以及组合预测等不同的角度,对石油产量、价格、需求等单一模型的成果进行研究,并对各类模型优缺点进行比较。为进一步开展与石油问题相关的复杂系统建模提供参考,针对国家能源政策和能源政策分析的需要,与目前国际上比较具有代表性的综合能源模型系统,从复杂系统分析与建模的角度,介绍了各系统的建模方法、功能、应用。综合以上各类研究成果和现实需求,为今后石油以及能源模型的开发提出设想和展望。This paper gave a study on some oil models which have some functions such as oil production, oil price, and oil demand and so on. From four different viewpoints, time series, grey theory, neural networks, and combination of forecasts, the paper compared the advantages and disadvantages of each model in order to develop the modeling and simulation of the complex systems relating to oil problems in the further study. For the needs of the na- tional energy policy and energy policy analysis, some typical integrated energy models developed by international or- ganizations were shown and their approaches, functions, and applications were introduced based on modeling and simulation of complex system. Consolidated above researches and practical needs, some proposed ideas and prospects for modeling and simulation on oil and energy models in the future were given.

关 键 词：石油 能源 模型 复杂性 安全 

分 类 号：O141.4[理学—数学] N945.13[理学—基础数学]