无信号控制路段过街横道处行人过街行为  

Pedestrian Behavior on Un-signalized Mid-block Pedestrian Crosswalk

作　　者：段坚堤 龙科军[2] 李磊[2] 

机构地区：[1]长沙市规划勘测设计研究院,湖南长沙410007 [2]长沙理工大学交通运输工程学院,湖南长沙410114

出　　处：《系统工程》2013年第4期116-121,共6页Systems Engineering

基　　金：住房和城乡建设部科学技术项目(2012-R2-40);广东省交通科技项目(2010-02-038)

摘　　要：为了解析无信号控制路段过街横道处的行人过街行为机理,采集了长沙市8处过街横道处的行人过街行为数据样本,采用Logistic回归方法对样本进行统计分析,以过街决策(通过/停止)为因变量,选择行人个体属性、交通条件和道路条件三方面的7个指标作为自变量,建立了行人过街决策的Logistic回归模型,应用SPSS软件标定了Logistic回归方程参数。绘制行人选择"通过"概率-车头时距曲线,得到多种情形下行人过街的临界接受车头时距。结果表明:(1)在显著性检验水平0.05下,车头时距、车速、车型、车道数、行人性别、年龄、过街人群人数对行人过街决策具有显著性影响;(2)车型、车道数、过街人群人数、行人年龄、性别对行人采纳的临界车头时距有显著影响。行人过街决策的Logistic回归模型和临界车头时距分析结果为行人过街安全分析、行人过街设施选型设计和行人信号控制等提供了理论依据。The main purpose of this study is to analyze pedestrians＇ behavior on un-signalized mid-block pedestrian crosswalk. Pedestrians crossing behavior data were collected on eight pedestrian crosswalks in Changsha city. Statistical analysis was conducted on pedestrian behavior data. Logistic regression model was built to forecast pedestrian＇s decision to go or stop, based on seven independent variables involving pedestrian individual characteristics, traffic ,：onditions and road conditions. Software SPSS was used to calibrate the parameters of Logistic regression model. Plotting the curves relating vehicles＇ headway to the probability of pedestrian＇s decision to go, critical headways were obtained under various situations of pedestrian individual characteristics,traffic and road conditions. The results indicate that： （1） vehicle headway, velocity, vehicle type, lanes number, pedestrian gender, age, and number of pedestrian in the group can distinctly influence pedestrian＇s decision at a significance level of 0. 05; and （2） vehicle type, lane number, number of pedestrian in the group, pedestrian age, gender have distinct effects on the critical headway adopted by pedestrian. The Logistic regression-based pedestrian behavior model and the results of critical headway analysis in this study can provide theoretical basis for pedestrian crossing safety analysis, crossing facility design and pedestrian signal control.

关 键 词：交通工程 行人过街模型 LOGISTIC回归 过街横道 临界车头时距 

分 类 号：U491[交通运输工程—交通运输规划与管理]