阈值处的盈余分布断层:盈余管理解释的实证检验  

Discontinuities in Earnings Distributions around Thresholds: An Empirical Examination of the Earnings Management Explanation

作　　者：王福胜[1] 程富[1] 吉姗姗[1] 

机构地区：[1]哈尔滨工业大学经济与管理学院,150001

出　　处：《会计研究》2013年第5期19-26,95,共8页Accounting Research

基　　金：国家自然科学基金面上项目(70972097);国家自然科学基金重点项目(71031003)的资助

摘　　要：本文利用中国沪深两市2008-2010年A股上市公司财务数据,检验了阈值处的盈余分布断层是否由盈余管理引起。检验结果表明,避免报告亏损和避免盈余下降动机诱发了阈值两侧样本公司盈余的异常变动,这些异常变动包括:第四季度初的微损公司和微利公司中有异常高比例的公司报告年度微利;第四季度初的盈余微增长公司和盈余微下降公司中有异常高比例的公司报告年度微增长。正是这些公司的盈余的异常变动导致了阈值处的盈余分布断层。本文的研究不仅为盈余分布断层的盈余管理解释提供了充分证据支持,也为投资者和监管机构及时发现公司的盈余管理行为提供了参考依据。By using the Chinese A-share listed companies' financial data in fiscal years from 2008 to 2010,this paper investigates whether the discontinuities in earnings distributions around thresholds are caused by earnings management. The results show that the motivations of avoiding reporting losses and earnings decreases induce abnormal shifts by firms around thresholds. The abnormal shifts include: small loss firms and small profit firms at the beginning of the fourth quarter report small annual profits at an abnormally high rate; small earnings decreasing firms and small earnings increasing firms at the beginning of the fourth quarter report small annual earnings increases at an abnormally high rate. It is these abnormal shifts that cause the discontinuities in earnings distributions around thresholds. These results provide sufficient evidences to support the earnings management explanation for the discontinuities in earnings distribution. The results also can provide references for investors and regulatory bodies to timely identify firm's earnings management behaviors.

关 键 词：阈值 盈余分布断层 盈余管理 

分 类 号：F275[经济管理—企业管理] F224[经济管理—国民经济]