安徽省房地产价格与宏观经济互动关系研究  

Study on the Relationship between Real Estate Prices in Anhui Province and Macro-economy under the Environment of Tightening Policy

作　　者：孙翠平[1] 

机构地区：[1]铜陵学院经济贸易系,安徽铜陵244000

出　　处：《长江大学学报（自科版）（上旬）》2013年第5期6-10,2,共5页JOURNAL OF YANGTZE UNIVERSITY (NATURAL SCIENCE EDITION) SCI ＆ ENG

基　　金：铜陵学院院级科研项目(2010tlxy29)

摘　　要：运用时间序列模型对安徽省1998～2010年房价与宏观经济的数据进行了分析。结果表明,安徽省宏观经济变量对房价的影响是显著的,这表明宏观经济是房价的主要支撑因素,而房价对国内生产总值的短期影响不显著,长期却具有反作用,表明长期过高的房价对宏观经济不利;受信贷效应的影响,房价对社会总投资的长期和短期影响均为正;在财富效应作用下,房价对社会总消费的长期和短期影响亦为正;在调控政策效应方面,货币政策对房价的效果不明显,而房地产税收政策却有明显效果,特别是长期的效果更为显著。By time series model analysis of Anhui Province's real estates prices and macro-economy from 1998 to 2010,the results show that the effect of macro-economic variables on real estates prices is significant in Anhui Province,this indicates that the macro-economy is the main support factor of prices,the real estates prices to GDP short-term impact is not significant,long-term counterproductive suggests that long-term high prices is non-beneficial to the macro-economy.With the effect of credit,house prices both of long-term and short-term effects of social investments are positive,under the action of the wealth effect,prices on long-term and short-term effects of total community consumption are also positive.In terms of policy effects,effects of monetary policy on real estates prices are less obvious,and real estate taxation policies have obvious effects,especially long-term effects are more visibly.

关 键 词：房地产价格 宏观经济 社会总消费 社会总投资 政策调控 

分 类 号：O29[理学—应用数学] F064.1[理学—数学]