基于产运系数法的物流需求量预测研究  

Forecasting of Logistic Demand Based on Production and Transportation Coefficient

作　　者：冯淑贞[1] 

机构地区：[1]交通运输部科学研究院现代物流研发中心,北京100013

出　　处：《物流技术》2013年第6期91-93,共3页Logistics Technology

摘　　要：结合我国社会物流统计制度确立的指标体系,对传统的以货运量为核心的物流预测方法的优缺点进行了分析。在此基础上提出了产运系数法,是从物流基本概念出发的物流需求量计算方法,并采用该方法对某地区的运输量、库存量、配送量、全社会物流需求量、第三方物流需求量进行了预测。In this paper, in connection with the index system determined in the social logistics statistics system of China, we analyzed the strength and weakness of the traditional logistics forecasting processes centered on cargo transport volume, on the basis of which, we proposed the logistics demand caleulation method based on production and transportation coefficient, and applied it to the forecasting of the third party logistics demand of a certain area.

关 键 词：产运系数法 物流需求量 第三方物流 需求量预测 

分 类 号：F224[经济管理—国民经济] F252