基于改进电力弹性系数法的负荷预测  

Load Forecasting Based On Improved Electricity Elastic Coefficient Method

作　　者：罗国东[1] 

机构地区：[1]苏州供电公司,江苏苏州215000

出　　处：《陕西电力》2013年第6期46-48,64,共4页Shanxi Electric Power

摘　　要：采用现有电力弹性系数法进行负荷预测时,不区分全社会用电组成,笼统地用全社会经济增长去预测电量增长。针对这一不足,提出区分全社会用电组成,将全社会用电分为生产用电和生活用电。利用相应的弹性系数去预测生产用电中的不同产业用电需求,采用时间序列自回归模型预测生活用电。将2种预测电量相加可得到全社会用电,提高了预测精度。The existing elastic coefficient method can＇t distinguish compositions of the whole society electricity. The society economic growth is used to forecast the electricity growth generally. According to this shortcoming, it is suggested to distinguish the compositions of the whole society electricity, and the compositions is divided into production power and living power, The paper uses the corresponding elasticity coefficient to predict the demand of different production power, and uses Time Series Autoregressive Model to predict the demand of living power. Two kinds of predicted energy are added to get the whole society demand, and improves the forecasting accuracy.

关 键 词：弹性系数法 用电组成 经济增长 自回归模型 

分 类 号：TM715[电气工程—电力系统及自动化]