基于环流分型的逐时气温预报技术探讨  

The Hourly Surface Temperature Forecasting Techniques Based on Circulation Types

作　　者：施萧[1] 裴军林[1] 江晓华[1] 党建涛[1] 杨道勇[1] 

机构地区：[1]中国人民解放军63796部队气象室

出　　处：《沙漠与绿洲气象》2013年第3期17-20,共4页Desert and Oasis Meteorology

摘　　要：利用2009年1—2月T213模式产品38 a来的常规观测报文以及场区逐时气温记录,综合运用环流分型和Kalman滤波方法,基于逐月环流型的气温增率建立了场区72 h逐时气温释用预报模型,并针对场区2009年3—7月各天72 h逐时气温进行了具体的预报。结果表明:Kalman滤波算法能够得到较为精确的最高、最底温度预报,通过环流分型得到的逐时气温预报准确率能够达到73.2%,可以作为逐时气温预报一种较好的方法。In this paper the Kalman filtering and circulation type classification were introduced,the interpretative forecasting model of hourly temperature in 72 hours was established according to the temperature increase rate due to the different circulation types in terms of T213 prediction products from January to February at 2009,conventional observation data and hourly temperature records at the site area more than 30 years.Testing from March to July in 2009 for the site area was demonstrated.The results show that with Kalman filtering relatively accurate results of the maximum and minimum of temperature can be obtained,while with circulation types classification the accurate rate of hourly temperature forecast can reach 73.2 percent.The method in this paper can play well for hourly temperature forcasting.

关 键 词：逐时气温 环流型 KALMAN滤波 释用预报 

分 类 号：P457.3[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]