基于车型比例的速度离散与交通事故率关系研究  

Study on the relationship between speed discrete and accident rate based on the vehicle type proportion

作　　者：王海鹏[1] 曲大义[1] 杨万三[1] 郭涛[1] 郝杰[1] 

机构地区：[1]青岛理工大学汽车与交通学院,青岛266520

出　　处：《青岛理工大学学报》2013年第3期86-90,共5页Journal of Qingdao University of Technology

基　　金：国家自然科学基金面上项目资助(51178231);国家科技支撑计划资助项目(2009BAG13A03)

摘　　要：我国高速公路交通构成复杂,各种车型混合行驶,车速离散程度严重,这也是影响公路交通效率与安全的重要因素之一.研究车型比例对速度离散的影响程度,用第85%位车速与第15%位车速的差值和变异系数2个参数对车辆速度离散的程度进行定量描述,进而研究基于车型比例的速度离散与交通事故率的相关关系.针对北京和西安18个路段的速度和车型的实测数据进行回归和数据拟合分析,结果表明车速离散程度与事故率并不是简单的线性递增关系,而是一种先增后减的非线性关系.The complexity of the national highway traffic composition,the mixed running traffic and the high degree of speed dispersion are the important factors which affect highway traffic efficiency and safety.The thesis makes a study of the impacts of vehicle type on the degree of speed dispersion.The degree of speed dispersion is quantitatively described by the two parameters—the difference between the number 85% speed and the number 15% speed,coefficient of variation.And then the relativity between the degree of speed dispersion based on the proportion of vehicle type and accident rates is discussed.Regression analysis and the data-fitting are carried on with the data of vehicle type and speed measured in 18 sections in Beijing and Xi＇an,and the results show that the relationship between degree of speed dispersion and accident rates is not simple linear increased but a non-linear one which first increases and then decreases.

关 键 词：交通流 车型比例 速度离散 事故率 

分 类 号：U491.4[交通运输工程—交通运输规划与管理]