经济增长、运行效率与通货膨胀容忍度——基于我国1978年以来宏观经济数据的实证研究  

Economic Growth, Operating Efficiency and Inflation Tolerance Degree ——An Empirical Study Based on China's Economy since 1978

作　　者：吴海民[1] 王建军[2] 

机构地区：[1]五邑大学经济管理学院,广东江门529020 [2]河南财经政法大学工商管理学院,河南郑州450002

出　　处：《经济经纬》2013年第4期128-133,共6页Economic Survey

基　　金：国家社会科学基金项目(11BJL040);教育部人文社会科学青年基金项目(11YJC790205);广东省自然科学基金博士启动项目(S2011040000414)

摘　　要：针对我国通货膨胀应否"扩容"的热议,笔者基于通货膨胀与经济增长、运行效率之间的非线性关系,利用门限效应自回归模型和我国1978年以来的宏观经济数据,估算了当前我国通货膨胀的容忍度。实证结果支持适度提高我国的通货膨胀容忍度。在短期内以"稳增长"为政策取向时,通货膨胀的最大容忍边界为4.455%;在中长期内以转变发展方式、提高经济运行效率为政策取向时,3.741%可视为中长期内我国通货膨胀的最大容忍边界。这一结果为政府设定通货膨胀调控警戒线提供了一个新的参考。This paper analyzes the non-linear relationship between inflation and economic growth as well as operating efficiency, by estimating the current inflation tolerance degree with TAR method and China＇ s macro-economic data since 1978. The empirical results support an appropriate upgrade in China＇s inflation tolerance degree. In the short term, the maximum tolerance degree of inflation is 4. 455% when taking into account the steady growth; however, in the medium or long term, it reduces to 3. 741% when striving for change of economic development mode and improvement of economic operating efficiency. Thus, the research results provide a new ref- erence for government to establish the endurable interval of inflation.

关 键 词：通货膨胀容忍度 门限自回归 经济运行效率 

分 类 号：F061.2[经济管理—政治经济学]