加权组合预测模型在卫生资源配置中的应用  

The application of weighted combination forecasting model for health resource allocation

作　　者：高启胜[1] 陈定湾[1] 刘盼盼[1] 

机构地区：[1]浙江医学高等专科学校浙江省农村卫生研究中心,杭州310053

出　　处：《中华医学科研管理杂志》2013年第3期166-169,共4页Chinese Journal of Medical Science Research Management

基　　金：2012年浙江省社科联重点研究课题成果（2012236）

摘　　要：对卫生资源需要量进行科学预测是制定卫生资源规划的前提和基础。本文对卫生资源预测常用统计模型的适用范围和特点作了总结，引人介绍了自然社会经济预测中常用的各种s型曲线模型并对组合预测模型权重的确定方法进行了梳理归纳，在此基础上提出卫生资源预测研究中，应采取多变量的时间序列模型，或者是在建立预测值的多重线性回归方程和单一时间序列预测模型的基础上构建组合预测模型，以期为相关预测研究提供方法学借鉴。Scientificly forecasting the health resources is the premise and foundation for making health resource planning. This paper summarized the application scope and characteristics of commonly used statistical models for health resources forecasting, introduced many S type curve prediction models commonly used in natural and social economic fields, hackled and concluded the weight calculation methods of combination forecasting models, and on this basis put forward that multivariable time series model or combination forecasting model based on single time series model and multi-linear regression equation of the predictive value should be set up for forecasting health resources, so as to provide methodological references for related forecasting research.

关 键 词：加权 组合预测模型 卫生资源 

分 类 号：R197[医药卫生—卫生事业管理]