地震预测:从芦山地震到大陆地震  

Earthquake prediction: From Lushan earthquake to continental earthquakes

作　　者：李德威[1,2,3] 陈桂凡[1,2] 陈继乐[1,2] 郝海健[1,2] 

机构地区：[1]中国地质大学(武汉)地质调查研究院,湖北武汉430074 [2]中国地质大学(武汉)地球科学学院,湖北武汉430074 [3]中国地质大学(武汉)重大地质灾害研究中心,湖北武汉430074

出　　处：《地学前缘》2013年第3期1-10,共10页Earth Science Frontiers

基　　金：中国地质调查局1:5万区域地质调查项目(1212011121246;1212011220400)

摘　　要：自从1990年以来,通过对青藏高原的调查和研究,认识到下地壳流动同步形成盆地和造山带,并受控于相关洋盆地幔软流圈向大陆的顺层流动和底辟作用。下地壳不均匀流动通过韧脆性中地壳热能-应变能转换孕育地震,部分发震能量通过上地壳脆性断层释放。在地震孕育过程中通常会伴生跨年度干旱和异常降雨,构成热灾害链。近5年内青藏高原东部连续发生汶川、玉树、芦山大地震,形成于从亚东流经羊八井、安多、玉树并分支流向汶川和芦山—康定的下地壳"热河"的仰冲式和侧冲式撞击作用。从2008年9月以来连续发表5篇论文,根据地壳热构造和热灾害链的时空结构对芦山地震的三要素进行了长期和中期预测。2008年9月预测从2013年开始可能发生大地震,2012年9月将鲜水河—安宁河—小江异常热流构造带5年内将发生多个7级地震的首个大震锁定在芦山或西昌。芦山地震只释放了亚东—羊八井—安多—玉树—鲜水河—安宁河—小江"热河"剩余热能中的一小部分,在西昌—会理—昭通地区、道孚—康定地区、通海—石屏地区近5年内很可能发生4个7级左右的地震。此外,华北典型的热灾害链结构表明震情严峻,环渤海地区近3年内很可能发生大地震。从地震热流体撞击机理与地震异常之间的关联性出发,提出了动态立体监测及短临预测地震的思路和方法。It has been recognized that basin and orogenic belt were simultaneously formed by lower crustal flow, which controlled by the laminar flow and diapir of the mantle asthensphere from the relational ocean by the survey and study of the Tibetan Plateau since 1990. Unsteady lower crustal flow bred earthquakes on ductile-brittle middle crust by thermal energy strain energy conversion, and released some seismogenic energy by brittle faulting of the upper crust. The associated across-the-year drought and abnormal rainfall during the breeding process of an earthquake constitute a thermal disaster chain. The Wenchuan, Yushu and Lushan earthquakes happened in the eastern Tibetan Plateau in recent five years, which are the results of obduction and lateral impact of ＂thermal river＂ in the ductile lower crust from Yadong flowing through Yangbajing, Amdo, and Yushu, then becoming branches toward Wenchuan and LushawKangding. Five papers have been published since September, 2008 involving the long-term, and medium-term forecasts for the three elements of Lushan earthquake according to the crustal thermal structure and temporal spatial structure of the thermal disaster chain. A major earthquake may occur since 2013 according to the forecast of September 2008, and the first one of several about Ms 7 earthquakes along the Xianshuihe-Anninghe-Xiaojiang abnormal thermal tectonic belt will occur in Lushan or Xichang in recent five years according to the forecast of September 2012. The I.ushan earthquake has only released a small part of the residual energy in the Xianshuihe-Anninghe-Xiaojiang thermal river＂, and therefore four about Ms 7.0 earthquakes are likely to occur in Xichang-Huili Zhaotong, Daofu-Kangding, and Tonghai-Shiping in next five years. In addition, the classic thermal disaster chain structure in the North China indicates a severe earthquake situation, and in the surrounding areas of the Bohai Sea, major earthquakes are likely to occur in the next three years. The ideas and methods of three-dimensional dynamic mo

关 键 词：地震机理 地震预测 下地壳流动 芦山地震 青藏高原 

分 类 号：P315[天文地球—地震学]