河南省居民人均烟草消费与肺癌死亡率关联研究  

Research on the association between per-capita tobacco consumption among the permanent residents and lung cancer mortality in Henan province

作　　者：马丽[1] 孙锦峰[1] 冯丽云[1] 

机构地区：[1]郑州大学公共卫生学院卫生统计学教研室,450001

出　　处：《中华流行病学杂志》2013年第7期711-713,共3页Chinese Journal of Epidemiology

摘　　要：目的探讨河南省居民家庭人均烟草消费与肺癌死亡率的关系，为降低肺癌死亡率提供佐证，并为控制烟草政策的制定提供依据。方法利用1992--2011年河南省居民肺癌死亡率、居民家庭人均烟草消费资料，采用趋势检验法分析变化趋势；Spearman秩相关分析关联性，滞后时间单位为10年。拟合居民家庭烟草消费与肺癌死亡率关系。结果河南省居民肺癌死亡率由1992年的14．75／10万上升至2011年27．00／10万，增长率为83．05％；居民家庭烟草消费与肺癌死亡率呈上升并有滞后的趋势，1992--2001年居民家庭人均烟草消费与2002--2011年肺癌死亡率关联性为n=0．770，P=0．009〈0．05，差异有统计学意义。随着烟草消费上升，肺癌死亡率也上升，模型为y=2．60x^0.46（F=576．483，P〈0．001），决定系数为0．667。结论河南省居民家庭人均烟草消费对肺癌死亡率有影响，两者间存在关联性并有滞后趋势。Objective To study the relationship of per-capita tobacco consumption and lung cancer mortality in Henan province, and to provide evidence for policy development on tobacco control and reduction of lung cancer mortality. Methods Data regarding lung cancer mortality and per-capita tobacco consumption among household residents from 1992 to 2011, was collected from published almanacs in Henan and Henan Tumor Institutes. Trend Method was used to analyze the development of lung cancer in Henan province and the trend of per-capita tobacco consumption of residents in the household. ＇Spearman rank correlation＇ was used to analyze the correlation between per-capita tobacco consumption of residents in the household from 1992 to 2001 and the lung cancer mortality rates from 2002 to 2011, with the lag time unite as 10 years in this study. Cure Estimation was used to fit the model regarding the relationship between per-capita tobacco consumption of residents in the household and lung cancer. Results Lung cancer mortality among those permanent residents in Henan province increased from 14.75/100 000 in 1992 to 27.00/100 000 in 2011, with an increase of 83.05%. Both the trend of per-capita tobacco consumption among the permanent residents and the lung cancer mortality were uprising, with the tobacco consumption showing a lag effect to the lung cancer mortality. Correlation coefficient between the per-capita tobacco consumption of residents in the household from 1992 to 2001 and the lung cancer mortality from 2002 to 2011 was r,=0.770, P=0.009〈0.05, with statistically significant difference. Along with the uprising trend of lung cancer mortality, the per-capita tobacco consumption of residents in the household was also parallelly rising with the equation of relevance between^per-capita tobacco consumption of residents in the household in Henna province and lung cancer as y =2.60 x^0.46 （F=576.483） and the R2 was 0.667. Conclusion Per-capita tobacco consumption of residents in the household in Henan province appeared a

关 键 词：肺癌死亡率 人均烟草消费 曲线拟合 

分 类 号：R734.2[医药卫生—肿瘤]