城市公共交通需求预测研究  

A research on the prediction of public traffic demand

作　　者：张玉玺[1] 李振[1] 王建群[1] 

机构地区：[1]北京理工大学机械与车辆学院,北京100081

出　　处：《佛山科学技术学院学报（自然科学版）》2013年第3期6-10,共5页Journal of Foshan University(Natural Science Edition)

摘　　要：公共交通需求预测研究是公交规划中的一个重要环节,只有对公交需求预测准确,才能对公交规划方案提供有效的参考依据。对交通发生量、交通吸引量、交通出行分布、公交出行分布的预测进行研究,充分考虑城市土地利用规划、居民的人口特征、出行特征以及社会经济发展水平,最后得出交通OD量的预测,有利于交通系统内部平衡以及交通系统外部的协调发展,为公交规划提供了必要的依据。Public traffic prediction is an important segment of public traffic planning and an accurete prediction usually offers effective reference for correct and right decisions. Taking the city land use planning, the demographic changes and the trip characteristics of the residents into account, we carried out a research on the prediction of the volume, the attraction quantity and the trip distribution of social traffics and the trip distribution of public traffic and concluded that OD predictions of traffic make for the inner balance and the external coordinate development of the traffic system and provide basic conference for public traffic planning.

关 键 词：公共交通 公交规划 需求预测 

分 类 号：U491.17[交通运输工程—交通运输规划与管理]