地球同步轨道高能电子通量预报方法研究  

Approach for Predicting the Energetic Electron Flux in Geosynchronous Earth Orbit

作　　者：郭策[1] 薛炳森[2] 林兆祥[1] 

机构地区：[1]中南民族大学电子信息工程学院,武汉430074 [2]国家卫星气象中心,北京100081

出　　处：《空间科学学报》2013年第4期418-426,共9页Chinese Journal of Space Science

摘　　要：统计分析了GOES卫星测量得到的E>2 MeV能道电子通量与地磁A_p指数以及太阳风数据的关系,构建了基于径向基函数RBF的神经网络模型框架,对GOES-12卫星所处的地球同步轨道高能电子通量进行提前1天的预报,其对2008—2010年数据预测的效果较好.另外,发现在GOES-12卫星观测的E>2 MeV能道高能电子达到10~8 cm^(-2)·d^(-1)·sr^(-1)以上时,FY-2D卫星的测量数据同时达到10~8 cm^(-2)·d^(-1)·sr^(-1)以上的比例达到90%左右.通过对FY-2D卫星E>2MeV能道电子通量与GOES卫星E>2 MeV电子通量的相关性分析,建立了FY-2D卫星高能电子预报模型,预报结果与实测通量符合较好.Geosynchronous Earth Orbit （GEO） is in the earth＇s outer radiation belts, where energetic electrons are enriched. The flux of energetic electron will surge after the geomagnetic disturbance, which is one of the causes for the failure of satellites. So, it is important to predict the electron flux on the geosynchronous orbit in order to prevent the satellite from harming. As the enhancement of electron flux is controlled by many conditions and its temporal and spatial evolution is complex, it needs to analyze various data to make the prediction model. In this work, energetic flux data from GOES-12 was statistically analyzed together with geomagnetic Ap index and solar wind velocity and combination of input parameters was determined. An artificial neural network based model was built and trained with the data mentioned above. The prediction of electron flux of E 〉 2 MeV one day ahead has been made and the result was good that the prediction efficiencies were 0.766, 0.808 and 0.882 for the year of 2008, 2009 and 2010, which is a little better than other models. The prediction for electron flux of FY-2D satellite was made by applying the GOES-12 prediction result to analyze the flux related characteristics. The statistics showed that the E 〉 2 MeV electron flux measurement of the two satellites become similar when the flux was above 10^8cm^-2·d^-1·sr^-1. Because the deep charge effect become significant when E 〉 2 MeV electron flux exceed 10^8cm^-2·d^-1·sr^-1, the energetic electron alert for FY-2D satellite was made with the result by GOES prediction and got good result.

关 键 词：地球同步轨道 高能电子通量 神经网络 AP指数 太阳风速度 

分 类 号：P353[天文地球—空间物理学]