考虑城市发展水平综合评分的城市电力负荷密度预测法  

Methods of city power load density prediction with the comprehensive score of urban development level considering

作　　者：周任军[1] 周胜瑜[1] 文明[2] 赵慧材[1] 申磊[1] 杨雨薇[1] 

机构地区：[1]长沙理工大学智能电网运行与控制湖南省重点实验室,湖南长沙410004 [2]湖南省电力公司经济技术研究院,湖南长沙410004

出　　处：《电力科学与技术学报》2013年第2期34-37,共4页Journal of Electric Power Science And Technology

基　　金：国家自然科学基金(51277016);湖南省高校创新平台开放基金(12K074);湖南省研究生科研创新项目(CX2011B359)

摘　　要：针对负荷密度指标法计算量大、过程复杂、预测精度依赖于大量样本数据的问题,提出基于城市发展水平综合评分的预测法,采用主成分分析法计算城市发展水平综合评分指标,利用该指标和趋势外推技术预测城市的负荷密度值.通过对8个城市的负荷密度值及城市发展水平综合评分值做比较分析,预测其中某一城市的负荷密度值,结果表明预测计算过程简单方便,具有很好的预测效果.In view of the past load density target methods which mean the problem of the large a- mount of calculation, the complicated process and the prediction accuracy depending on a large number of samples data, this paper put forward a kind of city power load density prediction method which is based on the comprehensive score of urban development level. The comprehen- sive score was calculated by the principal component analysis method. By using the score and the technique of trend outside pushing, the city power load density was predicted. One city＇s load density value was predicted with comparing load density values and scores of eight cities. Results showed that the computation process was simple and convenient, and the prediction method had a good performance.

关 键 词：城市发展水平综合评分 电力负荷密度预测 趋势外推 主成分分析 

分 类 号：TM715[电气工程—电力系统及自动化]