吉林电网的暴雨灾害风险等级区划与评估研究  

Risk Zoning and Assessment on Torrential Rain Disasters of Jilin Power Grid

作　　者：谢今范[1] 石大明[1] 胡轶鑫[1] 李钦伟[2] 

机构地区：[1]吉林省气候中心,吉林长春130062 [2]吉林省电力勘测设计院,吉林长春130062

出　　处：《灾害学》2013年第3期48-53,共6页Journal of Catastrophology

基　　金：中国气象局气象新技术推广项目(CMATG2008M36)

摘　　要：开展暴雨灾害对电网安全的风险等级区划与评估,可以指导电网的规划设计、建设、运行,最大限度保证电网安全。从风险评估四要素出发,充分考虑各要素的空间差异和权重差异,构建了等级划分标准,开展了风险区划和分区评价。结果表明:暴雨洪涝对吉林电网危害最高的地区是长春部分地区、吉林市辖区和通化的集安地区;其次是长春大部、四平大部、吉林部分地区和延边州的珲春部分地区;风险最低的地区主要在白城部分地区、白山部分地区及延边大部。从风险区划各指标的分析来看,通化地区南部的高风险性是由致灾因子的高危险性起主要作用,而吉林省中部地区的高、中风险性是由其孕灾环境的高敏感性及承灾体的高易损性引起的。Risk zoning and assessment on torrential rain disasters of power grid is instructional in grid plan- ning, construction, and operation of a power grid and ensure power grid security in maximum. Based on the four elements of risk assessment and round consideration on the space and weight differences of each element, classifica- tion standards are constructed and risk zoning and zoning assessment are developed. It is shown that： torrential rain disaster risk of Jilin power grid is the highest in parts of Changchun city, Jilin city and Ji＇ an town in Tonghua city ; the risk in most of Changchun city and Siping city, parts of Jilin city, parts of Hunchun town in Yanbian is higher; the risk in parts of Baicheng city and Baishan city and most of Yanbian is the lowest. From analysis on risk zoning index, the highest risk of south Tonghua city is caused by higher harmfulness of disaster inducing factors, highest or higher risk of middle Jilin province is caused by higher sensitivity of disaster inducing environment and higher vul- nerability of disaster bearing body.

关 键 词：电网安全 暴雨 风险等级 评估 

分 类 号：X43[环境科学与工程—灾害防治]