基于SVM的退运险价格模型研究——以淘宝网为例  

Research on Price Model of Back Freight Risk Based on the SVM——Taking“Taobao”as an Example

作　　者：张梅梅[1] 胡宏伟[1] 

机构地区：[1]华北电力大学,河北保定071000

出　　处：《软科学》2013年第7期128-132,共5页Soft Science

基　　金：国家社会科学基金资助项目(11CGL072);中央高校基金项目(916061010);华北电力大学引进人才博士基金项目(93506003)

摘　　要：以淘宝网的退运险为研究背景,对退货概率的影响因素进行了实证研究,并采用SVM技术构建了退货概率模型,根据退货概率构建了退运险的价格厘定模型。研究结果表明:基于SVM的退货概率模型最小误差为13.3%,可以作为退货概率的评判工具;基于退货概率建立的退运险多质量等级定价模型,是一种理想的网络商品定价方法。This paper, taking the back freight risk of ＂TaoBao＂ as the research background, constructs the return probability model based on SVM with empirical research for the influence factors of return probability. The paper builds the pricing model of the returned insurance based on return probability, which are based on the background of TaoBao through empiri- cally researching on the influence factors of return probability. The result shows that the minimum error of return probability model based on SVM is 13.3%, which is a reliable evaluation tool of return probability. It constructs the price model of back freight risk based on return probability model, which is an ideal pricing method for network goods.

关 键 词：退运险 淘宝 退货概率 SVM 

分 类 号：F724.6[经济管理—产业经济] F842.6