SRES情景下多模式集合对淮河流域未来气候变化的预估  

Projections of future climate change over Huaihe River basin by multimodel ensembles under SRES scenarios

作　　者：吴迪[1,2] 严登华[1,2] 

机构地区：[1]中国水利水电科学研究院水资源研究所,北京100038 [2]中国水利水电科学研究院流域水循环模拟与调控国家重点实验室,北京100038

出　　处：《湖泊科学》2013年第4期565-575,共11页Journal of Lake Sciences

基　　金：国家重点基础研究发展计划"973"项目(2010CB951102);国家科技支撑计划"十二五"项目(2012BAC19B03)联合资助

摘　　要：采用偏差修正/空间降尺度方法处理后的IPCC AR4中8个全球海气耦合模式的集合平均结果,分析了SRESA2、A1B和B1情景下淮河流域未来30 a(2011 2040年)相对于现状(1961 1990年)地面温度和降水的可能变化.结果表明:(1)多模式集合能较好地反映流域现状年、季温度和降水的大尺度空间分布特征;对温度和降水的年内分配过程模拟较好,各月温度集合平均与观测值相差0.2℃左右(冬季各月除外),而降水集合平均与观测值相对误差在5%左右(9月除外).(2)不同情景下未来流域年、季温度一致增加,年温度增加幅度在0.85～1.12℃之间;冬、春季温度增加相对明显,而夏、秋季温度增加并不显著;年际和年代际温度增加趋势显著.(3)不同情景下未来流域年降水有增加趋势,增加幅度为0.13%～5.24%,增幅不明显;降水季节变化有增有减,季节、年际和年代际降水变化较为复杂,不同情景下降水空间变化差异显著.Using multimodel ensemble mean results of 8 global coupled ocean-atmosphere models in the Fourth Assessment Report （AR4） of the lntergovernmental Panel on Climate Change （IPCC） by bias-corrected statistical downscaling method, possible changes of surface air temperature and precipitation over Huaihe River basin were predicted in future （2011 -2040 ） relative to baseline （ 1961 - 1990） under SRES A2, A1B and B1 scenarios. The results indicate that （ 1 ） multimodel ensembles can repro- duce a large-scale spatial distribution of annual, seasonal temperature and precipitation over the Huaihe River basin. It can also re- flect better on monthly temperature and precipitation distributed processes within the year. Compared with the observations, the monthly temperature has a difference about 0.2 ~C （expect winter ）, and the precipitation has a difference about 5% （except Sept- ember）. （2） The annual and seasonal temperature presents an upward trend under different scenarios, The annual temperature in- creases with a range of 0.85 - 1.12℃, while temperature in winter and spring increases more obviously than that in summer and autumn. （3） The annual precipitation increases with a range of 0.13% -5.24% in future, but the changes are not significant. Seasonal precipitation presents an increasing or decreasing tendency, however seasonal, interannual and interdecadal precipitation changes are more complex. The spatial pattern of precipitation varies obviously under different scenarios.

关 键 词：区域气候变化预估 多模式集合 地面温度 降水 淮河流域 

分 类 号：P467[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]