物流产业与三大产业联动发展关系研究——以北京市为例  

On the Interactive Development of Logistics Industry and Three Major Industries——A Case Study of Beijing

作　　者：宋杨[1] 高宏伟[1] 

机构地区：[1]北京交通大学经济管理学院,北京100044

出　　处：《北京交通大学学报（社会科学版）》2013年第3期1-6,共6页Journal of Beijing Jiaotong University(Social Sciences Edition)

基　　金：国家社科基金项目"复杂系统视角下物流产业与区域经济的互动与协调发展"(10BJL048)

摘　　要：以北京市为例研究物流业与三大产业之间存在的相互关系,可得出以下结论:北京市第一产业对物流产业需求和影响有限,第二产业的物流需求量大约是第三产业的3倍左右。所以随着北京市产业结构的进一步升级,物流需求量会继续增长但增长速率会减慢。同时,虽然第三产业对物流业需求的前期投入较大,但从长远来看,第三产业的发展将会减少物流成本。同时,定量研究表明,北京市物流业的发展能够推动北京市产业结构的调整,带动产业升级。This paper makes a case study of Beijing to analyze the relationship between logistics in- dustry and the development of the three major industries. The result shows that the need and the impact of the first industry on logistic industry are restrictive, while the need of logistics industry from the second industry is 3 times greater than that of the third industry. With the further opti- mization and upgrading of the industrial structure of Beijing, logistic demand will increase but with a slower rate. Meanwhile, in the long run, as the third industry develops, the total logistics cost will be lowered, though the third industry needs larger initial investment. On the other hand, through quantitative analysis, we find that the development of logistics can speed up the process of industrial optimization, and promote industrial upgrading.

关 键 词：物流产业 三大产业 协整检验 灰色关联度分析 

分 类 号：F061.5[经济管理—政治经济学]