中国西北干旱区气温时空变化特征  

Research on spatio-temporal change of temperature in the Northwest Arid Area

作　　者：黄蕊[1] 徐利岗[2,3] 刘俊民[1] 

机构地区：[1]西北农林科技大学水利与建筑工程学院,杨凌712100 [2]中国科学院新疆生态与地理研究所,乌鲁木齐830011 [3]四川大学水利水电学院,成都610065

出　　处：《生态学报》2013年第13期4078-4089,共12页Acta Ecologica Sinica

基　　金：国家重点基础研究发展计划(973计划)项目(2009CB421301);国家自然科学基金项目(50879071)

摘　　要：依据我国西北干旱区95个站点1951—2008年月平均气温资料,运用经验正交分解法(EOF)、Morlet小波分析、Mann-Kendall秩次相关检验法及气候趋势系数等方法剖析了西北干旱区气温场空间分布结构及多时间尺度下的变异规律和变化趋势。结果表明:西北干旱区气温存在3a、9a及准12a主周期;气温场空间分布以"相间复杂"型为主(对总体方差贡献为30.93%),基于此将西北干旱区划分为北疆子区、南疆子区、河西子区、青海子区及内蒙古子区。全区44.8%的年份气温属正常范围,15.5%年份异常偏暖,3.4%显著偏暖,13.8%年份偏冷,显著偏冷和异常偏冷年份均为8.6%。自90年代以来,西北干旱区开始增温,2001—2008年温度正距平值达6.9℃,正距平年数由80年代40%上升至100%。西北干旱区97.9%的地区呈现增温趋势,其中94.7%的地区通过信度0.01的显著性检验,96.8%的站点通过了0.05的显著性检验;增温幅度为0.02℃/10a—1.21℃/10a;并形成了北疆以富蕴(1.09℃/10a),南疆以喀什(0.22℃/10a),东疆以巴里坤(0.76℃/10a),柴达木盆地以小灶火(0.81℃/10a),河西地区以松山(0.08℃/10a),内蒙古西部以吉诃德(0.03℃/10a)为中心的增温区。Using the empirical orthogonal function,morlet wavelet analysis,Mann-Kendall rank correlation method and climatic trend coefficient method,the characteristics of temperature on spatial distribution pattern and the multiple-time scale variability are analyzed by the monthly temperature data of 95 sites in the northwest arid area during 1951—2008.Results indicate that：（1） There are 3 years period,9 years period and 12 years period approximately in research region.（2）Temperature spatial distribution pattern is primarily＂ Complex type＂（to contribution the overall changes rates were 30.93%）,according to that,the northwest arid area was divided into northern of Xinjiang region,the southern of Xinjiang region,Qinghai region,Hexi Corridor region and Inner Mongolia Plateau region.For the average annual temperature series,according to level of warm and cold,the rates for normal,abnormal warm,significantly warmer,cold,significantly colder and extreme colder were 44.8%,15.5%,3.4%,13.8%,8.6% and 8.6% respectively.Since 90s,temperature increase significantly,the positive temperature anomaly value was 6.9℃ for 2001—2008,the ratio of positive anomaly year increased from 40% to 100% since 1980s.（3） There are 97.9% regional appear rising tendency in the research region（94.7% and 96.8% of the stations passed0.01 and 0.05 significance test,warming rate 0.02℃/10a—1.21℃/10a）.In the northwest arid area,there are some centers of the warming area,for example,Fuyun（1.09℃/10a） in north of Xinjiang,Kashgar（0.22℃/10a） in south of Xinjiang,Barkol（0.76℃/10a） in east of Xinjiang,Xiao Zaohuo（0.81℃/10a） in Qaidam Basin,Song-shan（0.08℃/10a） in Hexi Corridor and Quixote（0.03℃/10a） in Inner Mongolia Plateau region.

关 键 词：西北干旱区 气温 时空变异性 趋势分析 经验正交分解(EOF) Mann-Kendall秩统计法 

分 类 号：P468.021[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]