议价能力、产品内分工与行业S曲线动态——基于ISIC行业细分的贸易和价格数据  

Bargaining Power,Intra Product Specialization and S-Curve: Based on ISIC Specification of Trade and Price

作　　者：张晓莉[1] 

机构地区：[1]上海对外贸易学院国际经贸学院

出　　处：《投资研究》2013年第5期71-82,共12页Review of Investment Studies

基　　金：教育部人文社会科学研究青年基金项目(11YJC790286)"人民币汇率形成机制改革下汇率变动与中国产业结构调整研究";上海对外贸易学院地方本科"国际经济贸易学科群"085工程建设项目(Z08513006)"大宗商品金融化与大宗商品价格波动联动性研究:理论及实证分析"的资助

摘　　要：本文首先按ISIC Rev.2将中国的贸易收支和贸易条件数据细分至35个行业,选择Berthou和Emlinger的进出口价格指数,采用动态相关系数方法检验贸易收支与贸易条件的"S曲线"存在性;其次对存在"S曲线"的行业和显著拒绝"S曲线"的行业进行对比分析,结合PTM指数对行业"S曲线"存在性影响因素展开研究。结果表明:行业加总数据不存在明显的S曲线,而存在"S曲线"的15个细分行业仅占总贸易额的18.45%;明显拒绝"S曲线"的存在性的12个行业占总贸易额的45.03%;19个行业存在HLM效应;议价能力和产品内分工程度能够显著影响行业"S曲线"存在性,议价能力越低的行业或产品内分工程度越高的行业越能拒绝"S曲线"的存在性。This paper disaggregates both the trade balance and trade term data into 35 industries, and estimates the dynamic cross-correlation coefficients to test the evidence of S-Curve on industry level. The results show that when aggregate data is considered, there is no evidence of the S-Curve, which shows the low self-adjust ability of Chinese total industry against ex- change rate volatility. When the data are disaggregated by ISIC Rev.2 industries, the S-Curve is supported in 15 industries of the 35 ones considered, but their trade amount only averagely accounts for 18.45% of the total trade amount during 1996-2004. However, 12 industries strongly reject the evidence of S-Curve and their trade amount averagely accounts of 45.03% of the to- tal trade amount during 1996-2004. Furthermore, 19 industries show the HLM effect. It appears that bargaining power and ver- tical specialization index have great influence on the evidence of an S-Curve pattern.

关 键 词：S曲线 议价能力 产品内分工 

分 类 号：F752.6[经济管理—国际贸易] F224[经济管理—产业经济]