安徽省人口增长组合模型研究  

Research on combinative model of population growth in Anhui Province

作　　者：杨星亚[1] 朱卫东[1] 

机构地区：[1]合肥工业大学经济学院,安徽合肥230009

出　　处：《合肥工业大学学报（自然科学版）》2013年第7期871-874,共4页Journal of Hefei University of Technology：Natural Science

基　　金：合肥工业大学博士学位人员专项基金资助项目(20100111110015)

摘　　要：预测区域人口增长对做好区域经济、社会发展规划具有重要意义,文章在分析指数增长模型、Logistic模型和BP神经网络模型特点的基础上,针对单一模型预测时仍存在的问题,提出了组合模型。用组合模型来预测2005—2010年安徽省的人口数,并与以上3种模型的预测值进行对比,结果显示,组合模型对安徽省人口数的预测精度更高,是一种较好的预测人口的模型。Prediction of regional population growth has great significance in the regional economic and social development planning. In order to solve problems in the single model prediction, a combinative model is proposed based on the analysis of the features of exponential growth model, Logistic model and BP neural network model. Then the combinative model is used to forecast the population of Anhui Province from 2005 to 2010. Compared with the above-mentioned three models, the combinative model is much more accurate in forecasting the population of Anhui Province and is a better one for population forecasting.

关 键 词：人口预测 指数增长模型 LOGISTIC模型 BP神经网络 组合模型 

分 类 号：F224[经济管理—国民经济]