中国能源内生经济模型构建及实证研究  

Endogenous Economic Models and Empirical Research in China's Energy

作　　者：王乾坤[1] 王子龙[1] 

机构地区：[1]南京航空航天大学经济与管理学院,江苏南京210016

出　　处：《工程管理学报》2013年第3期57-61,共5页Journal of Engineering Management

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目(71003048);江苏省高校哲学社会科学重点与基地项目(2012ZDIXM012;2012JDXM004);南京市社科规划项目(12Y03);南京航空航天大学产学研专项资金(NC2012003)

摘　　要：利用1978~2011年数据,在多变量分析框架下建立我国能源经济C-D模型,运用计量经济方法对数据进行平稳性及协整关系检验;通过脉冲响应及格兰杰因果检验实证分析了我国经济与能源消费等相关因素间的关系,研究认为多要素影响下能源消费对经济增长起着促进作用。构建了基于状态空间模型的中国经济增长与能源消费的变参数模型,根据能源消费量与经济增量之间的增长率测算了能源消费与经济增长之间的比例关系。并从节能减排,提升能源利用效率,积极发展新能源等途径提出促进我国经济增长的政策建议。Through the data of 1978 to 2011,this paper establishes the C-D model of energy in China.A method of econometrics inspecting the stability is used.Co-integration relationship of those at the multivariate is analyzed.Results show that there is a close relationship between energy consumption and economy.Through the pulse and Grainger causality test,we analyze the relationship of our economy,the energy consumption and other related factors.Research suggests that many factors affecting energy consumption on economic growth play promoting roles.Based on those,this paper illustrates the variable parameter model which bases on the state space model on China＇s economic growth and the consumption of energy,and measures the proportion between the energy consumption and economic growth according to their increment rates.And then,we put forward relevant policy suggestions and know that it＇s important for our economic growth by energy conservation and emission reduction to improve the energy efficiency and develop the new energy.

关 键 词：能源消费 经济增长 内生经济模型 状态空间模型 

分 类 号：X24[环境科学与工程—环境科学]