基于灰色预测的加速试验机理一致性判定方法  

Identification method of failure mechanism consistency for accelerated testing based on grey forecasting

作　　者：潘晓茜[1] 康锐[2] 

机构地区：[1]中国电子科技集团电子科学研究院,北京100041 [2]北京航空航天大学可靠性与系统工程学院,北京100191

出　　处：《北京航空航天大学学报》2013年第6期787-791,797,共6页Journal of Beijing University of Aeronautics and Astronautics

摘　　要：确定失效机理一致性条件是保证加速试验正确性的前提之一.由于现有的一致性判定方法只能利用加速试验数据,不能指导加速试验设计,因此需要一种基于强化试验数据的一致性判定方法.针对工程中强化试验数据少的特点,选取可以处理少数据的灰色预测,给出了一致性判定的新方法及流程.该方法通过将灰色预测中的GM(1,1)和等维新息模型相结合,找出强化试验数据的趋势改变点,在加速试验之前得到机理一致性变化的条件.通过在加速度计中的应用案例,验证了该方法的可行性.Consistency of failure mechanism identification is one of the preconditions of correctness of accelerated testing design.The existing identification methods of failure mechanism consistency are based on data from accelerated testing which can not guide the design of accelerated testing.Therefore,the method based on data from enhancement testing is needed.The method proposed was based on grey prediction for lack of data from enhancement testing in engineering.The new identification method and flow of failure mechanism was also given.According to the combination of GM（1,1） and equal dimension model,the change point of trend of data from enhancement testing was found,as well as the level of consistency of failure mechanism before the accelerated testing.Finally,the feasibility of the method was validated by a practical example on accelerometer.

关 键 词：加速试验 机理一致性 强化试验 灰色预测 GM(1 1) 等维新息模型 

分 类 号：TB114.3[理学—概率论与数理统计]