中国农业科技进步与农民收入增长  

Agricultural Technological Progress and Farmers' Income Growth in China

作　　者：陆文聪[1] 余新平[1] 

机构地区：[1]浙江大学中国农村发展研究院,浙江杭州310058

出　　处：《浙江大学学报（人文社会科学版）》2013年第4期5-16,共12页Journal of Zhejiang University:Humanities and Social Sciences

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目(71073139)

摘　　要：改革开放以来,中国农业逐渐呈现出"半工半耕"、"男工女耕"的农户兼业化特征。农业科技进步对农民收入的影响不仅表现在对农民农业收入增长的直接影响上,同时也体现在对农民非农收入增长的间接影响上。利用中国农村历年的相关统计数据,实证检验中国"七五"至"十一五"期间农业科技进步与农民的农业收入和非农收入增长的关系后发现:长期内,中国农业科技进步对农民的农业收入增长存在着显著的正向效应,短期内也有利于农民的农业收入的增长,且对农民非农收入增长也起到一定的促进作用。这一结果否定了已有的"农业技术进步不利于农民收入增长"的观点,支持了中国依靠农业科技进步促进农民收入增长的政策假设。The relationship between agricultural technology progress and farmers＇income growth has received much attention from scholars in domestic and international society.Since W.Cochrane proposed″Agriculture Step Hypothesis,″the view that agricultural technology progress is unfavorable for farmers＇income growth has been widely disseminated.Some empirical researches support this view,which makes some China＇s agricultural policies that aim to increase farmers＇income by improving the agricultural technology into a confused position.But there are some important weaknesses of these empirical researches：Firstly,they emphasize merely analysis from a micro-perspective.Secondly,they are only base on some statistical data over a specific period of time.Thirdly,a large number of researches pay much attention to the effect of agricultural technology progress on farmers＇income,while few of them take farmers＇ non-agricultural income into consideration.Since the Reforming and Opening,especially along with the increasing industrialization,urbanization,marketization and internationalization,the rural labor force has presented non-agriculture transfer and the Chinese agriculture has apparent multi-development feature of ″half farmers and half workers″and″male workers and female farmers.″Therefore,agricultural technology progress in China should have impact on farmers＇income on both agricultural income growth and non-agricultural income growth,the latter of which is influenced by technological progress indirectly.This paper calculates the rate of agricultural technology progress and its contribution based on the annual time-series data from 1980to 2011in China.The VAR model with Co-integration and impulse response functions are employed to explore the relationships between the agricultural technology progress and farmers＇income growth and non-agricultural income growth as well from 1986to 2010.The result shows that the agricultural technology progress in China positively impacts farmers＇income growth not o

关 键 词：农业科技进步 农民收入增长 时间序列分析 

分 类 号：F323.3[经济管理—产业经济] F323.8