湖南省农业洪涝灾后恢复力评价指标体系及其应用  

An Evaluation on the Post-flood-disaster Agricultural Resilience of Hunan Province

作　　者：谷洪波[1,2] 李晶云[1] 唐铠[1] 

机构地区：[1]湖南科技大学管理学院,湖南湘潭411201 [2]湖南省新型工业化研究基地,湖南湘潭411201

出　　处：《沈阳农业大学学报（社会科学版）》2013年第3期270-274,共5页Journal of Shenyang Agricultural University(Social Sciences Edition)

基　　金：国家社会科学基金项目(12BGL075);教育部人文社会科学规划基金项目(11YJA790035);湖南省科技厅软科学基金项目(2011ZK3035);湖南省哲学社会科学基金项目(11YBA128)

摘　　要：农业洪涝灾害灾后恢复力评估,尤其定量评估,可为灾区救援、灾后重建援助以及保险理赔提供较为科学合理的依据。考虑自然环境、社会经济各方面影响因素,以及数据的可取性和详尽程度,选取汛期降水量、农业单产值、人口密度、森林覆盖率、水库密度、人均纯收入、政府人均支出、水田密度、人均保费收入和卫生机构数量十项指标,构建农业洪涝灾害灾后恢复力评价指标体系。根据指标体系并建立数学模型对湖南省所辖州、市农业洪涝灾害灾后恢复力进行评估,结果表明:长沙市灾后恢复力最高,湘西自治州最低,并且地域差异明显,东北部地区明显高于西南部地区。建议大力发展区域经济,增加农民收入;调整农业结构,优化种植制度;加强水利设施建设,提高防洪水平;提高森林覆盖率,综合治理水土流失;建立以政府为主导,个人、保险公司和市场共同参与的保险机制,补偿灾害损失,转移灾害风险,增强灾后恢复力。The evaluation on post-flood-disaster agricultural resilience, especially the quantitative one, can provide scientific and reasonable bases for disaster relief and post-disaster reconstruction aid and insurance claims.lO indexes from summertime rainfall, agricultural output value, population density, forest coverage, reservoir density, the per capita net income, the per capita expenditure of government, paddy field density, the per capita income of premium and the number of health institutions were chosen to establish an evaluation index system of the post-flood-disaster agricultural resilience, in view of the factors from natural environment, society and economy, and such factors as the reliability of data and the level of detail data as well. With the index system the post-flood-disaster agricultural resilience of the states and cities under the jurisdiction of Hunan Province was evaluated by establishing a mathematical model. The results showed that Changsha city possesses the greatest resilience, Xiangxi autonomous state is at ht bottom, and the northeast region is obviously greater than the southwest region. Therefore, suggestions are made, such as developing regional economy and increasing farmers＇ income, rearranging agricultural structure, optimizing the current cropping system, strengthening the construction of water conservancy facilities, improving flood control, increasing forest coverage, comprehensively controlling soil and water loss, establishing an insurance mechanism which is led by government and individuals, insurance companies and markets all participate in to compensate for the damage caused by flood disasters, transfer the risks brought by disasters and eventually improve the post-disaster resilience.

关 键 词：洪涝灾害 农业灾害 灾后恢复 恢复力 评价指标 定量评估 湖南省 

分 类 号：X43[环境科学与工程—灾害防治] P426.616[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]