黄河入海口水质评价与预测  

Water quality evaluation and forecast of Yellow River estuary

作　　者：张冉[1] 孙宝盛[1] 王永亮 司志娟[1] 李小芳[1] 颜廷文 

机构地区：[1]天津大学环境科学与工程学院,天津300072 [2]天津天大天环科技有限公司,天津300072

出　　处：《环境工程学报》2013年第8期3089-3093,共5页Chinese Journal of Environmental Engineering

基　　金：天津市自然科学基金重点项目(07JCZDJC02100)

摘　　要：对黄河入海口2004—2011年的水质进行评价与预测,采用灰色聚类法分析水体DO、CODMn、NH3-N 3项指标,总结水质年均变化情况。建立水质GM(1,1)灰色预测模型,用实际水质指标值检验其精度,并用此模型预测未来4年水质变化趋势。结果表明,2004—2015年期间,黄河入海口水质在2004—2007年波动较大,但将越来越好,CODMn、NH3-N呈下降趋势,DO、达标率呈上升趋势,并通过灰色关联分析方法分析水质变化原因以期对黄河入海口水质分析预测与水体保护工作提供参考。We evaluated and forecasted the Yellow River estuary water quality from 2004 to 2011,used the grey cluster set to analyze the concentration of DO,CODMn and NH3-N,summarized the changes of annual water quality.The GM（1,1） model was set and the actual water quality index was used to test its accuracy.The changing trend of the next 4 years＇ water quality was forecasted with the model.The result shows that from 2004 to 2015,the Yellow River estuary water quality is getting better though there was fluctuation from 2004 to 2007,the values of CODMn and NH3-N were descending with DO and compliance rate rising.The reasons were analyzed by grey rational analysis method,hoping to provide reference for the Yellow River water quality forecast and water protection.

关 键 词：黄河 灰色模型 水质评价 水质预测 

分 类 号：X824[环境科学与工程—环境工程]