基于Fuzzy与熵权法的南通城市生态安全评价与预测研究  

Ecological security assessment and prediction for Nantong based on Fuzzy and entropy

作　　者：胡秀芳[1] 查书平[1] 鲁凤[1] 王晓峰[2,3] 杨楠[1] 

机构地区：[1]江苏南通大学地理科学学院,江苏南通226007 [2]长安大学地球科学与资源学院,陕西西安710054 [3]中国科学院生态环境研究中心城市与区域生态国家重点实验室,北京100085

出　　处：《江苏科技大学学报（自然科学版）》2013年第3期281-288,共8页Journal of Jiangsu University of Science and Technology:Natural Science Edition

基　　金：国家自然科学基金资助项目(41040011);南通大学自然科学基金资助项目(09Z047);南通市科技计划基金资助项目(BK2012055)

摘　　要：城市生态安全是一个国家或区域生态安全的基础和核心.以沿江沿海、快速发展中的南通为例,基于PSR概念模型构建其城市生态安全评价指标体系,运用熵权法对各指标客观赋权,在对升半梯隶属函数完善细化和确定城市生态安全评价标准值之后,采用Fuzzy方法对1999～2008年10a间的城市生态安全状况进行综合评价,并运用逐步回归分析法构建预测模型,计算2009年南通城市生态安全级别预测值,与Fuzzy计算的结果进行对比检验.结果表明:1999年等级值为2.22处于不安全状态,到2008年达到了3.07已处于较安全状态,南通城市生态安全状况在逐年趋好;经模型检验,预测模型具有显著的统计意义,对未来城市生态环境质量改善和生态安全规划管理提供了依据.Based on the PSR conceptual model, we constructed the ecological security evaluation index system of Nantong, a city developing rapidly which is riparian and coastal. The entropy-right method was selected for the cal- culation objectively of the index weights. After the perfection and detailing of rise half-ladder subordinate function and the confirmation of classification standard of urban eco-security evaluation, the fuzzy synthetic evaluation meth- od was adopted in calculating, analyzing and evaluating the grades of urban eco-security ecology from 1999 to 2008. The prediction model was established by adopting stepwise regression analysis, and the predicted value of 2009 was compared to the calculation results by the Fuzzy. The results indicate that the aggregated index is 2. 22 in 1999 ,which means the ecological security level of Nantong is insecure ,but the index value of 2008 is 3.07 which reaches the security standard. Urban eco-security situation of Nantong becomes better and better, the evaluation prediction model has remarkable statistical significance. This study elaborates the development and the present eco- logical security state of Nantong, provides useful information for the planning and management of ecological security and improvement of ecological environment of Nantong.

关 键 词：南通 城市生态安全 FUZZY 

分 类 号：X24[环境科学与工程—环境科学]