中国远程教育学生流失现状及归因  

The Actuality and Attribution Analysis on Dropouts from Distance Education in China

作　　者：谭明杰[1,2] 周仲文[2] 邵培基[1] 李莹[3] 

机构地区：[1]电子科技大学经济管理学院 [2]四川广播电视大学 [3]中央广播电视大学现代远程教育研究所

出　　处：《现代远程教育研究》2013年第4期67-72,106,共7页Modern Distance Education Research

基　　金：国家自然科学基金面上项目"远程开放教育辍学研究"(70973148)

摘　　要：随着计算机和网络的广泛应用,远程教育学生规模不断扩大;与此同时,学生流失问题也日益凸显。较高的学生流失率增加了远程教育机构的生均办学成本,给远程教育机构的社会声誉造成负面影响。因此,研究学生流失规律及影响因素,以降低学生流失率,成为提高远程教学质量很好的切入点。已有研究采用访谈、问卷、描述性统计等方法,对流失率与学习阶段、性别、年龄、专业等的关系进行了探究。按照持续比较法,我国远程教育学生流失的影响因素包括学习者因素、教育机构因素、环境因素3大类和11小类:人口统计学因素、学前准备及技能、学习心理因素、学业表现、专业及课程设计、教育机构支持、交互、工学矛盾、家庭支持、计划外事件和社会支持。降低学生流失率一方面可以基于我国远程教育的现实情景,对学生流失各因素间的相互关系进行研究,在此基础上建立结构化的学生流失模型,对学生流失的决策过程进行清晰的解释;另一方面可以采用数据挖掘方法,利用教务管理系统和学习管理系统数据,建立学生流失预测模型,在流失行为发生前发现潜在的流失学生,以便教育机构可以有针对性的采取挽留措施。With extensive application of computer and Internet,the number of distance education students is growing steadily.Meanwhile,the problem of dropouts is increasingly outstanding.To the distance education institutions,the high dropout rate not only increases the average cost per student,but also brings the negative influence on their social reputation.In order to reduce dropout rate,study on the regularity and influencing factors of dropouts becomes a breakthrough to improve the teaching quality in distance education.Through interviews,questionnaires and descriptive statistics,the existing research revealed the correlation between dropout rate and several factors,such as learning stage,gender,age and major.According to constant comparative method,the dropout attributions of distance education in China are classified into three main categories,namely,learner factors,education institution factors and environment factors,which consist of 11 groups,including demographics,pre-study preparation and skill,learning psychology,academic performance,program and course design,support from education institution,interaction,conflict between working and learning,family support,unplanned events and social support.To reduce dropout rate of distance education in China,the future research can be carried out in two aspects.First,based on the China＇s realistic situation of distance education,the research analyzes the correlation of dropout related attributions and then constructs structural models to explain student＇s decision-making process to withdraw.Second,by using data mining methods,together with data from education management system and learning management system,the research constructs dropout prediction models,which are able to find out the potential dropout students and then assist distance education institution to adopt accurate measure.

关 键 词：远程教育 学生流失 流失规律 影响因素 流失模型 

分 类 号：G728[文化科学—成人教育学]