应对气候变化长期目标国际审评机制研究  

The International Review Mechanism Research for Climate Change Long-term Goal

作　　者：柴麒敏[1,2] 刘滨[2] 姜冬梅[2] 

机构地区：[1]国家应对气候变化战略研究和国际合作中心,北京100038 [2]清华大学,北京100084

出　　处：《生态经济》2013年第9期24-27,45,共5页Ecological Economy

基　　金：国家科技支撑计划课题"气候变化国际谈判与国内减排关键支撑技术研究与应用"(2012BAC20B00);国家社会科学基金重大项目"中国应对气候变化国家方案政策措施的关键问题研究"(09&ZD029)

摘　　要：即将于2013年至2015年启动首轮《联合国气候变化框架公约》下的审评工作将重点评估全球长期目标的充分性以及实现长期目标的总体进展,意味着可能在当前"控制温升不超过2度"目标基础上提出新的更严格的全球长期减排目标的可能性,涉及全球温室气体排放峰值时间框架、2050年减排目标等核心关切,并关注长期目标是否能实现、存在多大差距等一系列重要问题,毫无疑问将对后续"德班平台"谈判进程中提高2020年前的减排力度和2020年后的国际气候制度安排产生较大的直接影响。因此在对长期目标国际审评机制谈判进展、当前国际审评机制研究评述的基础上,提出反映发展中国家诉求的未来国际审评机制模式设计的建议,包括审评前期信息收集和汇编、审评专家对话和评估研究、审评综合报告撰写和汇报等方面。The first review under the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change will be launched in 2013-2015, and focus on assessing the adequacy of the long-term global goal and overall progress made towards achieving the long-term global goal, which indicated that the new, more stringent binding goals beyond the current 2 degree temperature control would be proposed after then, involved in global greenhouse gas emissions peaking timeframe and emission reduction goals by 2050, and also a series of important issues such as whether the long-term goal can be achieved and what are gaps. The Review will no doubt have great impacts on the negotiations of Durban Platform about enhancing the mitigation ambitions by 2020 and formulating the international climate regime beyond 2020. Therefore based on the analysis of the international review mechanisms negotiations progress and current researches, here we raised the recommendations the future international review mechanism designs to reflect the developing countries concerns, including information gathering and compilation, expert dialogue and assessment, synthesis drafting and reporting.

关 键 词：联合国气候变化框架公约 长期目标 审评 德班平台 

分 类 号：X3[环境科学与工程—环境工程]