残差灰色预测模型在我国老龄人口预测中的应用  

Application of Residual Error Gray Forecast Model on Prediction of Aging Development Trend in China

作　　者：张荣艳[1] 马艳琴[1] 郝淑双[1] 

机构地区：[1]黄河科技学院信息工程学院,河南郑州450006

出　　处：《数学的实践与认识》2013年第16期162-166,共5页Mathematics in Practice and Theory

基　　金：黄河科技学院基金项目(KYZR201115);郑州市科技局基金项目(20120412)

摘　　要：利用灰色预测理论,建立了GM(1,1)模型和残差灰色预测模型,经过分析,结果表明:残差灰色预测比GM(1,1)模型预测精度高.于是,利用残差灰色预测模型对2012-2020年我国人口老龄化状况进行了预测,为我国政府制定正确的相关政策提供科学理论依据.On the basis of gray model, GM（1, 1） model and the residual error gray prediction model are presented in this paper. Through comparative and analysis, the results shon that the residual error gray forecast model is featured with high precision degree. So, china aging development trend in 2012-2020 was predicted by using the residual error gray prediction model, so as to provide scientific theory foundation for the formulation of our government related policy.

关 键 词：老龄化 GM(1 1)模型 残差灰色预测模型 

分 类 号：C924.2[社会学—人口学] N941.5[自然科学总论—系统科学]